A lot of people are calling for a bear market very soon, saying that $124k was the Bitcoin top for this cycle. But let’s forget the noise of social media and look at the unbiased data we have to determine if the top is really here.
As you may know, the crypto market follows cycles alternating between a bull market and a bear market, with each cycle lasting approximately 4 years, about 2 years of bull market followed by 2 years of bear market.
Right now, we are near the end of the bull market in terms of time. The bull market started around January 2023 and is expected to end in the following months.
Now let’s look at some indicators that can help us predict, with as much accuracy as possible, if we are at the top of the Bitcoin cycle.
To get reliable signals, we need a variety of indicators: timing indicators, market sentiment indicators, and technical indicators.
The first site I recommend as an overall resource is the Bull Market Peak Indicators made by Coinglass :
This gives a broad overview of the market. Some indicators are more valuable than others, for example, the Pi Cycle Top, which is known for marking previous cycle tops within days.
Others are more recent, such as metrics around the BTC ETFs, and should be taken with less weight in your selling strategy since they lack long-term historical validation.
If you don’t know what a specific indicator means, you can click to see the historical data (red marks) for each metric and learn how it works.
I also recommend cross-checking with other sites by searching the name of the metric you want to study.
Personally, I recommend checking these especially in periods like now, when people are calling for a bear market and saying that 124k was the top. As of today, none of the indicators have reached a critical level (violet marks).
During times of hype on social media, it’s equally important to keep an eye on these signals daily and not get blinded by euphoria or endless calls for higher prices. Remember: a top is always made in euphoria.
For social sentiment, the Fear and Greed Index is a great tool to see if we’re in a potential selling zone :
Generally, when it’s around 80+, you should start considering selling. It can go higher, but that’s why it’s important to have a proper exit strategy instead of a binary “all in or all out” approach.
For altcoins, I use the Altcoin Season Index :
You can check both the daily and weekly time frames for a clearer picture. When the indicator approaches the 75-point mark, it signals that most altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, which usually happens near the end of a bull market as money rotates into alts.
When looking at indicators, the most important factor is reliability. It makes sense to trust metrics that have consistently proven their validity.
For Bitcoin, I personally find the EMA50 to be extremely reliable :
It’s important to remember that it’s okay not to catch the exact cycle top. What matters most is knowing when the top is near and having a plan to exit the market safely.
As always, thank you for reading !
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, you need to do your own research !
How To Spot the Market Top ? was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
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