A new report from Dune and Keyrock argues that prediction markets are doing something most crypto apps struggle with: keeping users active after the first month.
Their headline retention datapoint is simple: Polymarket shows month-over-month user return rates that outperform more than 85% of a benchmark set of 275 crypto projects spanning networks, DeFi protocols, wallets, and trading applications, based on the retention section of the report and its companion write-up on Keyrock’s site.
The full research package is published as Prediction Markets: The Next Frontier of Financial Markets with the report also available through Dune’s report hub at Prediction Markets: The Next Frontier.
Retention stats can be misleading if the methodology is fuzzy, so the definition matters.
The analysis tracks monthly cohorts of newly active users and checks how many of those users return to trade in subsequent months, then compares Polymarket’s cohort curves to a broad sample of crypto products.
You can cross-reference the ecosystem framing and datasets behind the report through Dune’s public work on the sector, including its prediction markets dashboard collection.
The report’s explanation boils down to one theme: prediction markets are habit products.
Most DeFi and exchange activity is volatility-driven. When markets go quiet, casual users disappear.
Prediction markets behave differently because the “content engine” is reality itself. Elections, macro data releases, sports, and culture moments create a steady stream of new markets and new reasons to check probabilities.
Keyrock’s write-up describes this as event-driven usage that starts to resemble a utility, not an episodic trade.
The report frames event contracts as a simplified way to trade and hedge outcomes, closer in spirit to a binary derivative than a token investment thesis.
That simplicity matters. Users do not need to understand chain bridges, yield strategies, or complex risk to participate. They just need a view on an outcome and a way to express it.
Polymarket markets are inherently shareable. A chart of live probabilities spreads faster than a DeFi APY table.
When probabilities show up in group chats, on X, or in news coverage, they pull users back to the same interface to check updates and trade.
The report also emphasizes liquidity as a structural bottleneck for prediction markets, and how leading venues use LP incentives and professional market makers to tighten spreads.
That improves the experience for normal users, which supports retention. If the book is thin and execution is painful, people stop returning.
Polymarket sits at the intersection of finance and culture: it turns attention into liquidity, and it turns uncertainty into a price.
That combination explains why it can retain users even when other crypto categories churn.
The retention story is part of a bigger claim: prediction markets are scaling into a new market layer.
In the same report package, Dune and Keyrock highlight that prediction markets have expanded rapidly across multiple dimensions (not just volume), including growth in transactions, monthly users, and open interest, alongside accuracy metrics like Brier scores.
Those headline figures are presented in the report’s “prediction markets in numbers” section on Dune’s report page.
If retention is the hard problem, prediction markets look like a potential wedge product for broader platforms:
The Dune and Keyrock report explicitly frames “integration” as one of the core dimensions that will determine whether prediction markets become infrastructure rather than a niche app category.
Retention outperformance is real if the methodology holds, but it is not a magic shield.
The report itself treats liquidity and regulation as structural dimensions that still shape the sector’s ceiling.
Dune and Keyrock’s core finding is that Polymarket is keeping users in a way most crypto products do not, with retention reportedly outperforming more than 85% of a broad benchmark sample.
The reason is not a single feature. It is the product loop: real-world events constantly refresh the trading narrative, probabilities are inherently shareable, and the experience improves as liquidity deepens.
If that loop keeps holding, prediction markets may continue evolving from a crypto curiosity into a mainstream information and hedging layer.
The post Polymarket Retention Beats 85% of Crypto Apps, Dune and Keyrock Report appeared first on Crypto Adventure.
Also read: PayPal vient de déposer une demande pour créer PayPal Bank : voici son projet
