According to a Polymarket poll titled “Who will Trump pardon in 2025,” Changpeng Zhao is the favored candidate for a presidential pardon, drawing 36% of bets on the decentralized prediction site.
Polymarket’s numbers show strong speculative interest in Zhao’s fate. A 36% share of bettors is a large lead in a market where votes are driven by opinion and information, not official process.
Based on reports, the poll reflects what some traders expect rather than any formal signal from the White House. Prediction markets can move fast when new facts appear, and their prices are watched because they capture a slice of public expectation.
Congressman George Santos and entrepreneur Roger Ver also made the list, each drawing 10% support from bettors for a Trump pardon. Other names listed by participants include Steve Bannon, Rudy Giuliani, and Sean “Diddy” Combs.
Source: Polymarket
Zhao pleaded guilty in November 2023 to failing to maintain an effective anti-money laundering (AML) program at Binance.
That conviction led to his resignation as CEO. Reports have disclosed that Zhao publicly hinted at the possibility of a pardon after US President Donald Trump’s controversial December 2024 pardon of Hunter Biden,
He also confirmed on a podcast in May that he had formally filed a pardon application with the White House.
Key Democratic lawmakers responded quickly after news of Zhao’s pardon filing and related business moves.
Senators led by Elizabeth Warren addressed a letter to White House Counsel David Warrington and Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche asking for clarity on the status of any pardon.
Reports cite concerns about a separate $2 billion deal announced by Binance, Emirati firm MGX, and World Liberty Financial (WLF) involving a stablecoin called USD1, which those senators said raises questions given the overlap of business ties and a pardon request.
On Trump, Bettors, And The Limits Of SpeculationPolymarket’s snapshot puts Zhao well ahead of other high-profile names, but a market position is not a legal verdict. Pardons are political acts made by the president; they can be influenced by many forces, and not all rumored candidates end up receiving one.
Betting data shows where attention is focused, and it can affect perceptions, but it does not determine the White House’s choice.
Featured image from Entrepreneur, chart from TradingView
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