According to Bons, Bitcoin’s halving schedule poses a long-term risk to the network’s stability. By 2036, block rewards will shrink to just 0.39 BTC per block, leaving miners with an estimated $2.3 billion annual security budget at current prices. He argues this would be insufficient to secure a trillion-dollar network, opening the door to potential 51% attacks that could manipulate transactions and erode trust.
Bons also criticized Bitcoin’s governance model, noting that the Bitcoin Core developers have historically resisted changes such as larger block sizes or inflation beyond the 21 million supply cap. This inflexibility, he warned, could trigger future chain splits or even force inflationary measures that destabilize the system.
Beyond economic and governance issues, Bons pointed to the looming risk of quantum computing. He suggested that breakthroughs in the field could compromise Bitcoin’s cryptography, particularly in older wallets that lack modern protections.
The debate over quantum computing’s impact on Bitcoin remains divided. Google’s Craig Gidney sees vulnerabilities emerging between 2030 and 2035, while Blockstream’s Adam Back believes the technology is still two decades away from posing a threat. Other voices, including Naoris Protocol’s David Carvalho and investor Chamath Palihapitiya, warn that the risk could emerge within just five years, potentially endangering up to 30% of all coins.
For Bons, it is this combination of declining incentives, rigid governance, and advancing technology that fuels his prediction of a possible Bitcoin collapse within the next decade.
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