After breaking its long downtrend earlier this month, the toncoin price now sits at a critical juncture. Traders are watching closely to see whether the token can maintain momentum and challenge higher resistance levels amid a shifting crypto landscape.
Market indicators provide a mixed picture. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has risen near 64, signaling increasing bullish pressure without showing signs of overheating. Meanwhile, the MACD on the daily timeframe has flipped positive, a technical development often associated with the early stages of a trend reversal.
Toncoin maintains bullish momentum above its 200 SMA, with a breakout over $3.1985 likely paving the way toward the $3.25–$3.30 range. Source: tomas jntx on TradingView
However, not all metrics are aligned. Daily moving averages remain a hurdle, with Toncoin remaining below its 20, 50, and 200-day lines. Momentum at the $3.15–$3.20 resistance level has also stalled, with the bulls needing more volume to create a breakout.
In the short term, $3.12 remains the critical support point for Toncoin. A strong bounce from this area could be the way to higher levels, with the buyers eyeing $3.50 and $4.00 as the next short-term targets. On the momentum express, ton price forecast models show a push to $4.50 and perhaps even $4.80, returning to earlier in the year highs.
Toncoin is approaching a potential breakout from its 12H falling wedge, with rising volume suggesting a bullish move toward $3.70 if momentum holds. Source: crypto vulture Trader via X
If TON coin fails to stay above $3.10, its price could drop to $3.00, with further support near $2.80, as weak retail demand and whale profit-taking may keep Toncoin range-bound without new catalysts.
The broader crypto market has been buoyed by Ethereum’s surge past $4,300, with some traders speculating that ETH could test the $5,000 mark in the coming weeks. The rally has been fueled by rising volumes, institutional interest, and optimism surrounding the upcoming Fusaka hard fork in Q4 2025.
Back in 2020–2021, skeptics laughed at ETH’s rise—$300 “too high,” $1K a “bubble,” $2K “over”—only to watch $4.8K arrive from the sidelines. Source: Rishi Onchain via X
“Reduced exchange balances and treasury accumulation are tightening Ethereum’s supply,” noted one analyst. “That gives ETH stronger fundamentals to push higher, and altcoins like Toncoin could benefit from this spillover effect.”
If Ethereum maintains its bullish momentum, it could lift sentiment across altcoins, providing Toncoin with the market tailwinds it needs to break its $3.20 ceiling.
The outlook for TON crypto remains cautiously optimistic. On one hand, Toncoin has successfully defended critical support levels and shows improving momentum on shorter timeframes. Simultaneously, resistance at $3.21 continues to thwart rallies, leaving the token vulnerable to retracements in case the general market mood worsens.
Toncoin was trading at around $3.21, up 1.27% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Brave New Coin
However, with the TON blockchain ecosystem growing and investors patiently awaiting fresh drivers of adoption, Toncoin remains a coin to watch. A successful break above $3.20 would validate bullish Toncoin price levels, while failure would most likely extend its consolidation.
Toncoin’s current test around the $3.21 level reflects the tenuous tightrope between bullish power and continuous resistance. Confirmation of a breakout would open the way for travels to $4.50 and even $4.80, whereas failure to maintain the support threatens a plunge to lower prices.
Since Ethereum is nearing $5K and overall crypto sentiment is still upbeat, the next several weeks will be pivotal in finding out the next direction of Toncoin’s price action.
Also read: Hackers Use Microsoft Teams to Hijack Crypto Wallets: What To Know
