After setting record highs in August, Bitcoin has spent nearly two weeks hovering just above $110,000, while Ether is holding between $4,300 and $4,500. Derivatives desks report heavier demand for protective puts, a signal that traders want insurance in case inflation surprises and rattles the Fed’s rate-cut outlook.
Markets are pricing in a September rate trim as virtually certain, with a small but rising chance of a half-point move. That has nudged implied volatility higher, but analysts at Derive note most of the excitement may come later in the year: their probability gauges give Bitcoin a 23% shot at topping $140,000 by December, with Ether carrying the same odds of breaking $7,000.
Flows show a split picture. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted more than $360 million on Sept. 8, while Ether products shed nearly $100 million in another round of redemptions. Yet on-chain data suggests ETH isn’t being dumped outright — almost 400,000 coins left exchanges last week, much of it tied to staking and treasury allocations.
Seasonal trends may be the bigger story. Analysts at Bitfinex highlight that Q4 has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest stretch, with October and November leading past rallies. If the Fed confirms a dovish path and Treasury supply remains orderly, they argue, conditions are in place for history to rhyme once again.
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