Analysts at Bitfinex believe a true “altseason” won’t arrive until regulators approve new exchange-traded funds that give institutional players exposure to riskier digital assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin’s dominance has slipped about six percentage points over the past month, now sitting near 58%, sparking speculation that altcoins could soon break out. But Bitfinex’s latest market note argues the environment remains too cautious for a sweeping rally. While capital inflows are still positive, they said, demand lacks the intensity that usually drives coins to fresh highs.
The report suggests that ETF launches could be the key catalyst, providing steady inflows that don’t depend on short-term sentiment. “Price-agnostic demand,” the analysts wrote, would help re-rate the entire digital asset space later this year.
Not everyone agrees with Bitfinex’s cautious outlook. David Duong, head of research at Coinbase Institutional, has pointed to September as a possible turning point, citing conditions that could spark a broader shift into altcoins sooner rather than later.
The debate comes as regulators continue to drag out decisions on new ETF products. The SEC has delayed filings tied to Bitcoin-Ethereum blends, Solana funds, and even a Core XRP Trust. With Bitcoin and Ether ETFs already established for over a year, the market is now eyeing which altcoins might be next in line.
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has gone further, suggesting that active crypto ETFs will eventually pave the way for niche products. He even predicts that by 2026, a fund focused entirely on memecoins could hit the market.
For now, the Altcoin Season Index sits at just 46 out of 100, far from signaling a breakout. Until ETF approvals unlock fresh capital flows, analysts say altcoins may continue to trade in a restrained pattern while Bitcoin sets the tone for the broader market.
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