Analysts warn that the next few weeks could prove decisive as whale behavior collides with weakening technical signals.
On-chain researchers report that wallets controlling thousands of coins have reduced their collective balance at the fastest pace of this cycle. Roughly $16.5 billion worth of Bitcoin has been distributed over the past month, much of it from long-term investors who had held for six months or more. Their repeated transfers, often in blocks of 8,000 to 9,000 BTC, have introduced significant headwinds just as price momentum was stalling.
The selling spree has coincided with a sharp technical breakdown. Bitcoin has slipped beneath both the 50- and 100-day moving averages, leaving only a thin layer of support between $112,000 and $110,000. Chart watchers caution that a daily close below this zone could activate bearish targets near $100,000. Momentum indicators such as the RSI are already trending lower, underscoring the risk of another leg down.
Yet the narrative is not entirely one-sided. Exchange inflow data suggests that whales are not dumping directly into the open market, raising the possibility that coins are moving to private deals or treasury buyers instead. Indeed, corporations have emerged as aggressive accumulators: Japan’s Metaplanet has vaulted into the top tier of holders after buying more than 5,400 BTC last week, while Michael Saylor’s firm added nearly 1,000 coins to expand its massive hoard.
ETFs, once seen as the primary channel of institutional exposure, are now being overshadowed by these corporate treasuries. According to River, companies collectively hold more Bitcoin than exchange-traded funds, and that accumulation trend shows little sign of slowing.
The clash between whale profit-taking and institutional accumulation leaves the market finely balanced. Bitcoin is trading near $112,800, with traders watching closely to see whether corporate demand can offset the largest wave of whale distribution in recent memory.
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