Arbitrum’s ARB token is flashing a classic bullish reversal setup after months of decline, with a cup-and-handle pattern pointing to a potential 65% rally toward $0.22. But the breakout attempt faces a major near-term test: a mid-May unlock of 92.65 million ARB tokens worth roughly $11–12 million, an event that could inject fresh selling pressure just as the token challenges key resistance near $0.13.
Arbitrum is showing early signs of a bullish reversal after months of downside, with its daily chart forming a potential cup-and-handle pattern.
The “cup” developed between February and April after ARB fell toward the $0.08–$0.09 range and then gradually recovered toward the $0.13 resistance area. That level now acts as the pattern’s neckline.

ARB has since pulled back slightly, creating the “handle” portion of the setup. This is usually a short consolidation phase where weaker buyers exit before a possible breakout. The structure remains constructive as long as ARB holds above the $0.118–$0.12 support zone and its 50-day EMA.
A decisive daily close above $0.13 would confirm the breakout. Based on the cup’s depth, the measured upside target sits near $0.21–$0.22, implying roughly 65% gains from current levels near $0.127 by June.
Momentum also supports the rebound case. The daily RSI is holding near 59, above the neutral 50 line, showing that buyers still have control despite the recent pause.
A drop below the handle support could weaken the pattern and expose ARB to a retest of the $0.10 area.
A key risk to the bullish setup is Arbitrum’s upcoming token unlock event scheduled for mid-May.
Around 92.65 million ARB tokens, worth roughly $11–12 million at current prices, are expected to enter circulation as part of the project’s ongoing team and investor vesting schedule. The release would expand ARB’s circulating supply by roughly 1–2%.
Token unlocks often create short-term selling pressure because early investors or insiders may choose to realize profits after previously illiquid holdings become tradable. In ARB’s case, the timing is especially important since the token is already testing a major technical resistance near $0.13.
If the unlock triggers increased spot selling, ARB could fail to confirm its cup-and-handle breakout and instead slip below the handle support near $0.12. Such a move would weaken bullish momentum and raise the likelihood of a decline toward the $0.10 support area.
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