ARK Invest finds that Bitcoin supply controlled by conviction buyers increased by 69% in Q1 2026, climbing from 2.13M to 3.60M BTC. These buyers’ Bitcoin doubling hits a level that has not been reached in years (2020), even though Bitcoin was on a downtrend and lost 22% of its value during the period.
The report piece points to how changes in holder dynamics are affecting the crypto market, and it is also getting loads of attention from institutional investors and blockchain analysts who are using on-chain metrics to spot signals for long-term positioning.
Conviction buyers are essentially those addresses that exhibit low spending patterns over the long term. Usually, they are representative of long-term holders and are headlining among institutional-grade strategies. 3.60M BTC by Q1 is the extent of illiquid supply that is associated with this large accumulation exposure.
Such on-chain accumulation trends are aspects that are most closely tracked across the whole digital asset ecosystem as they limit the amount of available circulating supply and also quite reality holder sentiment from price movements in the short term.
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Conviction buyer holdings last hit levels as high as they are today back in 2020, which was right before an important market cycle. Although historical comparison is useful to understand blockchain data, present macroeconomic factors, changes in regulations, and market structures are quite different.
The 22% drop in price, coupled with an increase in long-term holdings, indicates a disconnection between the spot market behavior and the underlying supply as observed by crypto research firms such as ARK Invest.
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The increasing illiquid stock of Bitcoin may lead to a reduction in exchange liquidity and have an impact on market depth. This is important not only for traders but also for custodians and ETF issuers. On one hand, potential supply shortage over the long term and growing institutional involvement in digital assets are the main advantages. On the other hand, challenges in understanding on-chain data, evaluating the impact of regulations like the GENIUS Act, and dealing with economic factors that influence risk assets are still present.
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