As the XBR/USD chart shows, Brent crude trading opened this week near the $61.40 level, and by Tuesday morning the price was hovering around $61.50 (approximately +1.7%).
Oil prices are being pushed higher by geopolitical developments, including:
→ Pressure on Venezuela. President Trump stated that the United States could seize or sell oil from Venezuelan tankers that have been blocked.
→ Ukrainian attacks on ports and tankers linked to the transportation of Russian oil.
As a result, oil has gained around 5% from its seven-month low recorded on 16 December (point B), reflecting the risk premium that traders are building into the price of a barrel.
Since mid-October, prices have remained in a downtrend, driven by a global increase in oil supply (analysts expect the supply surplus to persist into 2026).
At the same time:
→ price fluctuations have formed a descending channel, which was extended lower during the bearish impulse on 15–16 December;
→ at the low (B), the price failed to reach the lower boundary of the channel (a bullish signal), and then formed two bullish gaps (marked by arrows);
→ during the second gap, price moved aggressively into the upper half of the channel.
From a bullish perspective, price action suggests that buyers are currently in control, meaning traders should be prepared for a scenario in which rising geopolitical tensions push XBR/USD towards the upper boundary of the channel.
From a bearish standpoint, it is reasonable to assume that the area between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels (where oil is trading today) could act as resistance following the A→B decline.
