At its June meeting, the first chaired by newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC held the federal , a fourth consecutive pause that markets had priced as near-certain. The surprise was the tone, not the number. The committee stripped the easing bias from its statement and revised its dot plot higher, lifting the median year-end projection to 3.8% from the 3.4% pencilled in March, with nine of eighteen officials now seeing at least one hike before year-end.
Earlier today, Bitcoin had run up to around $66,250 by 16:00 UTC ahead of the decision, but the hawkish dots cut that move short. Through the 18:00 UTC release and the hours after, BTC faded on rising volume, printing a steep red candle down through the $65,000 handle and extending to an intraday low near $64,130 before stabilizing around $64,400 at the time of writing.
The technical picture weakened with the move. Bitcoin now trades below all three of its moving averages on the 30-minute chart, while the RSI near 38 underlines the shift, sitting well below the midpoint and far off the readings that accompanied the earlier push toward $66,000.
This is a short-timeframe picture, so it describes intraday positioning rather than a trend change on the higher charts, but it frames the immediate battleground. As long as Bitcoin holds beneath that clustered moving-average band, the intraday bias stays defensive, and reclaiming it is the first thing bulls would need to do to argue the hawkish-Fed selloff was a one-off rather than the start of a deeper fade.
The Fed was the expected event, and the market is already digesting it. The unresolved catalyst is the US-Iran deal, whose ceasefire framework was announced but whose formal signing is still pending. That gap is what leaves the next move open: a confirmed signing probably would ease the macro risk premium that has weighed on risk assets, while any delay or breakdown keeps it in place.
For the next 24 hours, that headline risk is likely to set the tone for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market more than anything left on the Fed calendar. With BTC back under its moving averages and momentum soft, traders are watching whether the $64,000 area holds as support and whether the Iran signing arrives to shift sentiment, the variable now carrying more weight.
The post Bitcoin Fades to $64,400 on Hawkish Fed, Eyes the Iran Deal Next appeared first on Coindoo.
