Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have been hit with heavy selling pressure, marking the start of a new stage in the cycle. BTC lost the key $115,000 level overnight, and bulls are now struggling to establish support as volatility rises. This move has shaken confidence, but several analysts argue it may simply represent a healthy retrace before the next leg higher, rather than the end of momentum.
Top analyst Darkfost provided crucial insights into the recent price action. According to his data, 1,401 BTC aged between 2 and 3 years were moved last night. Historically, when older coins suddenly become active, it often signals distribution by long-term holders. The subsequent price reaction lends weight to the idea that these coins were indeed sold into the market, adding to the downside pressure.
Despite this, the situation may not be entirely bearish. Market cycles often see long-term holders gradually release supply as new capital enters, creating volatility before higher valuations are reached. With fundamentals still supportive and demand drivers intact, many believe Bitcoin could be setting up for a stronger surge once this retrace finds a solid base. The coming days will be crucial in defining the market’s trajectory.
Darkfost’s analysis highlights that Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) remain active, even as the pace of their coin movements has slowed compared to previous months. This ongoing activity underscores a critical dynamic in the market: supply from experienced holders is still finding its way into circulation, influencing price action.
A closer look at the younger LTH cohort, defined as those holding coins between six and twelve months, illustrates this clearly. Since the beginning of September, this group has executed 10 notable transfers, with each transaction ranging between 8,000 and 9,000 BTC. On average, that amounts to roughly 8,500 BTC per move. With Bitcoin priced near $115,000 during this period, the selling pressure translates into approximately $10 billion introduced into the market within just a few weeks.
This level of distribution carries significant implications. While such selling pressure can dampen immediate upward momentum, it also reflects a normal stage in the market cycle where coins purchased at higher levels mature and transition into LTH status. The challenge arises when this supply coincides with heightened uncertainty or corrective phases, as seen in recent sessions.
Adding to the complexity, altcoins continue to trade in close correlation with Bitcoin. Despite narratives of diversification, the broader market has yet to fully decouple from BTC’s dominance. As a result, when long-term holders sell, triggering a downside in Bitcoin, altcoins often follow suit, amplifying the volatility.
Ultimately, LTH movements highlight a tug-of-war between profit-taking and new inflows. While this creates near-term headwinds, the absorption of supply by fresh demand will determine whether Bitcoin can stabilize and push higher in the coming weeks.
The 8-hour Bitcoin chart shows clear signs of weakness after bulls failed to hold the $115K support, with price now trading around $112,523. The breakdown followed sustained selling pressure, in line with recent on-chain data pointing to long-term holders moving coins into circulation.
Technically, Bitcoin has slipped below both the 50-SMA ($114,509) and the 100-SMA ($113,040), confirming a bearish shift in momentum. The 200-SMA at $115,157, which previously acted as strong support, now flips into resistance. Unless BTC reclaims this area quickly, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
The rejection near $117K earlier in the week also adds weight to the bearish case, showing that buyers lacked strength to push toward the $123K resistance. Immediate support lies around the $111K–$112K region, which coincides with prior consolidation levels from early September. A decisive break below could open the door to a deeper correction toward $108K.
Despite the bearish short-term outlook, the broader structure remains intact as long as BTC holds above the summer lows near $105K. For now, traders will be watching if bulls can defend current levels and stage a rebound, or if sellers drive the market further into correction territory.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
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