Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $116,000 and decreased almost 6.80% from its all-time high of $124,474. This decline is due to increased geopolitical tensions that are causing markets to become more cautious.
Source: CoinMarketCap
The most significant factor is a statement from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the organization of trilateral negotiations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Such news is causing confusion in the large treasury houses, such as Metaplanet and Strategy, which are taking the lead in response to the declining price of BTC. These investors are keeping on increasing their BTC, and the actual recession is viewed as an opportunity to increase their BTC.
Also Read: Bitcoin Bullish Momentum Builds as Golden Cross and Institutional Buying Align
Short-term Bitcoin buyers, also known as short-run holders (STHs), are experiencing significant stress. In January 2025, a significant correction occurred, ending the previous 7 straight months of losses in STHs.
Source: CryptoQuant
Ever since, the market of BTC has revived to a major extent. Short-term investors have continued to make profitable trades as Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 mark. However, short-term investors are currently experiencing losses again, and the STH-SOPR multiples have fallen below 1.
This change of action has created an uneasiness about the immediate future of BTC. In the past, the STH-SOPR ratio drop may have indicated two things: To start with, it may indicate a cooling intensity, as recognition of losses usually comes before the market correction. Second, it could be a healthy wash-out in which weak hands have been washed out to form the basis of a sustainable rally.
Bitcoin is now experiencing strong resistance at an all-time high. The market strength is tested by this loss-realization event. This may lead to a recovery if the market quickly absorbs the losses, similar to past instances when Bitcoin rebounded with gains after a brief downturn. In contrast, if the selling pressure continues, a further correction of BTC may take longer to occur.
On the part of the long-term holders (LTHs), the statistics are more optimistic. According to CryptoQuant LTH Realized Profit and Loss metrics, there is a moderate rate of profit realization by long-term holders. They are not as active and aggressive as in prior bull markets, such as in 2017 and 2021. This implies that even though BTC is currently trading near record highs, long-term holders are not experiencing any selling pressure.
Source: CryptoQuant
Institutional investors, however, are concerned. SoSoValue has provided evidence that the institutional outflows continued for an additional day. The institutional confidence might be dwindling, as on Monday, the market lost $121.81 million. In case these outflows persist, the situation might exert more pressure on the BTC price.
Source: SoSo Value
Geopolitical events and immediate losses for investors are keeping the price of Bitcoin under pressure. Nonetheless, key treasury institutions still make purchases at depressed prices, and long-term holders exhibit moderate selling.
The market is at a critical stage, with the reaction of both short-term and long-term holders being the one that will either allow Bitcoin to escape its upward trend or not. Or cause it to experience further corrections in the short run.
Also Read: Bitcoin at $100K: Golden Cross Signal Meets Holder Pressure
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