Bitcoin price is stuck. It can’t break past the $70,000 level. This makes many worry about a bigger fall. A market analyst points to a
The crypto market has cooled off. Bitcoin dropped over 45% since October. It went from a high of $126,000 down to $60,000 at times. Now, traders watch for signs of where the bottom might be.
One key tool is the Supply In Profit metric. It shows what part of all Bitcoin in circulation is worth more now than when it last moved. Think of it like this: if you bought BTC cheap and price rose, your coins are “in profit.”
This indicator acts like a cycle clock. Near market tops, almost all supply is in profit – everyone feels rich. At bottoms, very little is. It squeezes tight during lows.
Analysts use it to spot cycle turns. It’s simple but powerful for long-term views.
Look back to 2022. Bitcoin hit $69,000 all-time high then. It crashed 77% to about $15,500. The Supply In Profit stayed in the bottom zone for six months.
That long low-profit period marked the true bottom. Prices stayed weak until it recovered. History shows these phases last months, not weeks.
Image: Supply In Profit during 2022 bear market (hypothetical chart).
The same analyst, Yonsei_dent, applied this to now. If the current cycle mirrors 2022’s six-month bottom phase, Bitcoin could drop 70-75% from its peak.
From $126,000 high, that points to $31,500 to $38,000 range. From today’s price around $63,500, it’s a 41-51% more drop.
Why this range? The indicator hasn’t hit those lows yet. It suggests more pain before relief.
| Cycle | Peak Price | Drawdown | Bottom Price | Bottom Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $69,000 | 77% | $15,500 | 6 months |
| Current (Projected) | $126,000 | 70-75% | $31,500-$38,000 | 6 months? |
Right now, Bitcoin trades at $63,553. It fell 5.84% in the last day. Trading volume is $40.04 billion, up just 0.54%.
Weekly loss: 6.21%. Monthly: 27.11%. The $70,000 wall holds strong. No break means risk of more downside or sideway moves.
Image: BTC daily chart showing resistance at $70k.
Bitcoin cycles tie to halvings every four years. Supply cuts boost prices long-term. But short-term, corrections wipe out weak hands.
Supports the bear case:
Bull counters:
If BTC holds $60,000, bulls might win. A drop below could confirm the <$31,500 Bottom Target>.
History says big wins follow. Post-2022, BTC rose 5x to new highs. A $31,500 low could spark the next bull run to $200,000+.
Watch for:
The
Bitcoin’s journey is full of surprises. Will history repeat? Time will tell.
Q: Is $31,500 guaranteed?
A: No, it’s a projection based on past patterns. Markets can change.
Q: How reliable is Supply In Profit?
A: Very for cycles, but combine with other tools.
Q: When might we see the bottom?
A: If six months like 2022, in coming months.
Keep trading smart in this volatile space.
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Disclaimer: Blockmanity is a news portal and does not provide any financial advice. Blockmanity's role is to inform the cryptocurrency and blockchain community about what's going on in this space. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment. Blockmanity won't be responsible for any loss of funds.
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