Fresh on-chain data from Santiment revealed that Bitcoin’s key stakeholders, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC, now control around 13.68 million BTC, representing 68.62% of the total supply.
Before Bitcoin’s last all-time high, these holders accumulated roughly 110,010 BTC between August and mid-October. However, recent activity shows a reversal, with nearly 23,200 BTC sold since then.
This shift in whale positioning signals a cautious tone among large investors, often an early indicator of potential short-term corrections.
At press time, Bitcoin trades at $110,795, hovering just below the 20-week EMA ($111,425) and comfortably above the 50-week EMA ($100,863).
The alignment of exponential moving averages remains long-term bullish, but recent price behavior suggests fatigue after a strong rally.
The current setup reflects consolidation, with buyers taking profits and waiting for a decisive move before committing to the next trend phase.
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Bitcoin has retreated roughly 10.6% from its recent high of $123,731, showing clear signs of cooling. The 20-week EMA now acts as immediate resistance near $111K, while the 50-week EMA provides a firm support zone at $100.8K, roughly 8.8% below current levels.
If that level fails, the next safety nets are the 100-week EMA ($84,794) and 200-week EMA ($66,219), marking the deeper corrective zones.
From a Fibonacci perspective, the 0.236 retracement level near $112,087 remains the short-term resistance point. Reclaiming this area would indicate renewed buying pressure and open a path back toward the $123.7K high.
Conversely, losing support at $100.9K could push Bitcoin into a more extended correction toward $84.8K, aligning with the 0.382–0.5 retracement range.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) currently reads 43.6, suggesting mild selling without panic, a typical sign of a healthy cooldown phase.
Weekly candles have narrowed, showing smaller bodies and longer wicks, a classic signal of indecision after a powerful run.
In the bullish scenario, reclaiming $111K–$112K and closing the week above these levels would likely reignite upward momentum toward the $123K zone.
In the bearish case, a weekly close below $100.9K would hint at a transition to a medium-term correction. For now, Bitcoin’s structure remains long-term positive, but the market stands at a crossroads.
A decisive weekly move, either reclaiming resistance or losing key support, will determine whether this is a brief pause or the start of a deeper retracement.
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