Bitcoin is starting the week around $64,000, as traders weigh fresh macro catalysts and renewed pressure from a strengthening US dollar. While some market participants are preparing for volatility around upcoming US economic releases, others are pointing to historical seasonal patterns and on-chain evidence that suggests key levels may still attract steady demand.
The near-term narrative is being shaped by two competing forces: a potential risk headwind from the dollar index (DXY) and a counterweight from markets watching oil and inflation data as geopolitical developments evolve.
A familiar headwind for Bitcoin is back in focus: the US dollar. The DXY has climbed above 100 and reached levels not seen for more than a year, according to TradingView data cited in trader commentary.
Because the dollar index often trades inversely to crypto risk sentiment, persistent DXY strength can limit the upside for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Trader Daan Crypto Trades, commenting on weekend price action, said DXY was breaking the “big 100 level” while staying supported by long-term moving averages on the daily chart, based on references to the 200-day simple and exponential moving averages.
“If this ends up holding above 100, it would put some pressure on risk assets. So it’s good to watch.”
Other analysts similarly framed the next moves in the dollar as a determining factor for broader market direction. ColinTalksCrypto, for example, discussed the possibility of DXY extending higher if it clears an upper range tied to a widening wedge pattern, which they suggested could point toward the 106 area. Benjamin Cowen also noted an ongoing “bull case” for the dollar into the latter half of 2026.
For Bitcoin traders, the takeaway is straightforward: even if crypto has its own internal drivers, the next leg higher may be harder if DXY continues to hold above key levels.
While macro factors are still likely to dominate short-term price action, some traders are also pointing to historical seasonality. Rekt Capital argued that the relationship between June and July has often played out in an “opposite” direction for Bitcoin.
“History suggests that whatever June does, July will do the opposite,” Rekt Capital told X followers. The accompanying chart in the same commentary focused on BTC/USD trading within a range defined by longer-term exponential moving averages.
In that framework, a June close that confirms a loss of the 50-month EMA as support could lead to July acting as a “relief” period—potentially pushing the market back up to that moving average area, where it could then become resistance instead of support. Earlier, Rekt Capital had also suggested that bear-market conditions could persist for several months, again based on historical tendencies.
Even for traders who focus on technical and seasonal patterns, the context matters: seasonality is not a guarantee, and it can be overridden when macro data or liquidity conditions shift rapidly. Still, it provides a concrete lens for how bulls are positioning expectations for the coming month.
Inflation is the central macro theme for the week. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for May is due out on Thursday, and it is likely to influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
The article ties the current inflation debate to the broader impact of the US-Iran conflict on prices. As context, it notes that April’s PCE print reflected three-year highs, and it points to hopes that an eventual deal—and a corresponding pullback in oil—could reduce inflation pressure.
However, Mosaic Asset Company’s regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic,” argued that inflation risks are not confined to energy. It said investors are expecting a tempering effect from oil, but that price pressures have been spreading beyond energy. Mosaic also pointed to large federal budget deficits and supply-chain issues as additional contributors to cost upside, citing producer price dynamics as evidence that supply-chain pressures tend to lead changes in producer prices.
Why this matters for Bitcoin is the link between inflation prints and the probability of rate cuts. Higher inflation typically reduces the likelihood of the Fed easing policy, which can weigh on crypto and other interest-rate-sensitive assets. Cointelegraph previously reported that markets even price the possibility of a rate hike before the end of the year, and CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the odds of a hike at the Fed’s next late-July meeting (July 29) at roughly 36%.
Beyond PCE, Thursday’s calendar also includes revised Q1 GDP data and initial jobless claims, which could further shape the policy outlook—and therefore liquidity expectations for risk assets.
Geopolitics is also feeding into commodity markets, and that connection has become part of the Bitcoin debate. The article notes that after the US-Iran peace deal was signed, US WTI crude fell to about $73 per barrel—its lowest level since early March and around 40% below a local peak.
Historically, Bitcoin has often shown an inverse correlation to oil. Yet the piece says recent weeks have shown a more complex relationship, with risk assets rising while the geopolitical deal still supports the mid-$60,000 area.
Glassnode argued that oil’s latest movement provides room for Bitcoin bulls to “relax” in the short term. In a video analysis posted on X, Glassnode said that both Bitcoin and gold rallied, and it pointed to accumulation trends helping support $60,000 as a local bottom. Glassnode described “decent” buying of supply at lower levels and said there is a chance the $60,000 area could hold as a durable bottom for at least some time, even if it may not represent the absolute bottom.
This matters to traders because it frames a key level not just as a chart artifact, but as a zone where on-chain supply dynamics suggest buyers have been willing to step in.
While macro pressures and historical patterns guide expectations, flow data helps explain how the market is actually absorbing drawdowns. The article points to CryptoQuant research examining selling pressure visible on Binance, noting that the offload appears to involve newer investors.
CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost wrote that short-term holders (STHs)—investors holding for up to six months—reacted most strongly to the correction. The piece states that during June, STH inflows on Binance exceeded 80,000 BTC over seven days, which Darkfost estimated at roughly $5 billion in selling pressure. It also describes Bitcoin’s drop back toward February lows, relative to its May peak, as a nearly 30% decline that helped trigger this “emotional” response.
Yet the selling impact has not fully translated into behavior from larger “whale” holders. CryptoQuant contributor CryptoZeno suggested the market has moved into consolidation rather than full capitulation by comparing profitability metrics across older and newer whale categories.
“Long-term whales continue to hold positions despite reduced gains, while short-term whales remain largely neutral. This combination often reflects a period of market stabilization where speculative excess is gradually removed from the system.”
For investors, the practical implication is that heavy exchange-related selling can coexist with stability in larger holdings—meaning the downside may be more likely to consolidate around demand zones than to spiral into a straight-line liquidation event.
Going forward, traders will likely focus on whether DXY can hold above 100 without extending higher, and how Thursday’s PCE inflation print reshapes Fed expectations for the rest of the month. The durability of the $60,000 area may also depend on whether on-chain support persists as short-term holders either pause selling or look to re-enter at lower prices.
This article was originally published as Strong US Dollar Reaches 2025 High; Key Bitcoin Factors This Week on Crypto Breaking News – your trusted source for crypto news, Bitcoin news, and blockchain updates.
