Bitcoin is holding US$90k (AU$138k) as support at present, trading around US$91,163 (AU$140,596), even as unease lingers in the market. According to the Fear and Greed Index, the crypto market remains firmly in Fear territory, with the index only edging up from yesterday’s extremely low reading of 11 to 15 points today.
However, in a tweet, analysts from Santiment said that BTC, ETH and XRP are “all showing good signs of a potential rebound”, even as retail investors continue to sell.
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) November 18, 2025
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are all showing good signs of a potential rebound with retail dumping on all three. We measure small, retail wallets as:
<0.01 coin $BTC Wallets: 0.36% of holdings dumped in past 5 days
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Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, is singing the same tune, saying he expects a bottom to form soon.
I see the recent sell-off as being nothing more than a fast, painful version of the third one of the past couple of years, of nearly exactly the same magnitude.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered Kendrick pointed out that several indicators tied to market mood and pricing have fallen back to levels typically seen near past market lows. One example is MicroStrategy’s adjusted net asset value measure, which compares the value of its Bitcoin stash with its stock price; that metric has now slipped back to a one-to-one level.
With several key metrics down, Kendrick said, “This is enough to signify the sell-off is over,” adding that “a rally into year-end” is his “base case”.
Kendrick, who said in previous notes to investors that Bitcoin could reach US$200k (AU$308k) by the end of 2025, did not comment on the year-end target. Longer term, he had predicted US$500k (AU$770k) by 2028.
That sense that the market is consolidating rather than breaking down is echoed by CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju. He argues that the current pullback is largely a rotation among long-term holders, with “old Bitcoiners selling to TradFi players” via ETFs, MicroStrategy and other channels that are still injecting fresh liquidity.
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In his view, growing demand from sovereign funds, pension funds, multi-asset managers and corporate treasuries is building such powerful liquidity pipes that the old four-year “cycle theory” won’t really apply unless and until those flows slow dramatically.
Despite this positive outlook, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen about US$2.5 billion (AU$3.85 billion) of outflows in November, making it one of their worst months. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes says this reflects big asset managers unwinding basis trades in products like BlackRock’s IBIT – an arbitrage strategy rather than a conviction bet on Bitcoin – so the selling is more about a trade losing profitability than institutions losing faith in BTC itself.
Hayes also predicts that BTC could drop as low as US$80k (AU$123k) before it rallies to US$250k (AU$385k) by the end of 2025, based on an increase in liquidity driven by the Fed.
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