Bitcoin may have already printed its bear-market floor near $60,000, according to Carl Runefelt of The Moon Show and David Wulschner of Crypto Familie. Both creators argue that this cycle does not need the classic 80% drawdown because the previous peak lacked the retail euphoria that usually fuels a brutal washout.
BTC is now trading near $78,000 on CoinGecko, keeping the $60,000 rebound zone in focus. Runefelt said in a BeInCrypto interview that he called the bottom in real time when Bitcoin briefly broke below $60,000:
I think this is the bottom of the bear market,” he said, pointing to oversold RSI readings and continued institutional accumulation as reasons the downside looked limited.
Runefelt’s main argument is psychological. Previous deep Bitcoin bear markets followed euphoric tops, broad retail mania, and explosive altcoin rotations. “We never had any euphoria,” he said, arguing that this cycle never delivered the final speculative blow-off that normally precedes a standard 80% crash.
Wulschner mostly agrees, but leaves room for a deeper retest. “I think it would be a mistake if we are hoping for pricing below $50,000,” he said. His preferred accumulation box sits around $52,000 to $53,000, while a more extreme max-pain level near $39,000 remains possible but less likely in his view. He sees the current region as a strategic accumulation area rather than a place to chase short-term trades.
The same debate fits the current Bitcoin chart pressure near the $65K floor and $78K to $80K resistance zone. Bulls need BTC to hold its recovery range and push through overhead supply. Bears need a failed breakout to prove that $60,000 was only a temporary stop.
The argument also overlaps with Benjamin Cowen’s view that Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria. In his Crypto Macro Risk Memo, Cowen wrote that the cycle peak looked structurally different from 2017 and 2021 because public interest and altcoin rotation were weaker.
That does not remove downside risk. Bitcoin still faces fragile spot demand, derivatives-driven volatility, macro shocks, and possible liquidity stress. Recent perpetual-demand signals also show why traders remain cautious when futures appetite rises faster than spot buying.
The $60,000 bottom call now depends on follow-through. If Bitcoin holds above higher support and reclaims the $78,000 to $80,000 zone with stronger spot demand, the shallow-bear-market thesis gains credibility. If price rejects again and liquidity weakens, the market may force another test of the accumulation zone before the cycle turns.
Wulschner’s closing point keeps the focus on positioning rather than panic.
“Profit is not done in the bull market,” he said. “You set your goals, you set your foundation, you set your anchor positions in your portfolio in the bear market.
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