Bitcoin news today centers on major on-chain data underneath it. BTC short-term holder supply has dropped to one of its lowest levels on record. At the same time, long-term holder profitability has slipped into negative territory, a combination that historically shows up near major cycle bottoms rather than in the middle of a downtrend.
According to Glassnode's on-chain data, BTC is currently wedged between the median realized price near $63,000. The short-term holder (STH) cost basis around $68,700, trading on the lowest spot volume seen since 2019.
The data notes that supply held in profit sits close to past bear-floor territory, ETF inflows remain minimal, and coins keep landing on exchanges even as leverage stays crowded on the long side.
Analyst Lucky (@LLuciano_BTC) flagged this shift directly. He pointed out that Bitcoin short term holders now control one of the smallest slices of total supply in the coin's history. He noted that weak hands have largely been flushed out already, with coins moving gradually into stronger, longer-term wallets, though a further shakeout before the next major move would not be surprising.
On long-term holder profitability, analyst Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) pointed to long-term unrealized profit turning negative while Bitcoin trades roughly 50% below its cycle high, a structure seen near past macro bottoms. Stress is building, he added, but not yet at levels tied to full historical capitulation.
January 2015 low: $166 → a 386x return at today's price
December 2018 low: $3,189 → a 20x return at today's price
November 2022 low: $15,473 → a 4x return at today's price
Note: Crypto prices are subject to frequent changes. The data is sourced from TradingView’s official website.
What this means: each of those lows felt uncertain in real time, yet all three became strong entry points once the next BTC cycle took hold.
That pattern doesn't confirm 2026 is another bottom, but it explains why shrinking STH supply and negative long-term holder profitability draw so much analyst attention.
The effect is visible in coin movement too, supply is quietly shifting from short-term traders into long-term wallets, the same behavior seen ahead of each prior low.
Bitcoin price today sits around $63,450, down 1.28%. 24-hour trading volume is near $20.04 billion, down 8.38% as per CoinMarketCap data. The token is currently facing a key support level at $63K range.
Current price: around $63,450, down 1.28% in 24 hours
Market cap: $1.27 Trillion
Short-term holder cost basis: ~$68,700 (resistance per Glassnode)
Median realized price: ~$63,000 (support)
Broader downside level to watch: $58,500
A large cluster of coins, about 1.79 million BTC, was bought between $62,000 and $65,000. That's nearly 9% of total supply sitting right around current prices, per tradingview data. Holders near their break-even point tend to sell as price nears that zone, which explains why rallies keep stalling at the top of this range.
Holding above the median realized price keeps a retest of the short-term holder cost basis in play. Losing it risks a slide toward $58,500.
Anthony Pompliano has argued separately that continued government spending tends to push Bitcoin higher over time, regardless of short-term investor noise, a view that fits the longer accumulation narrative building around this zone.
This is financial information, not financial advice, and Bitcoin remains volatile and high-risk. Current prices should be verified independently, and personal risk tolerance should guide any decision. Whether short-term investor supply keeps compressing, and whether long-term holder losses deepen or recover, should shape where this cycle heads next.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Crypto markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
