Bitcoin often seems to follow seasonal patterns, especially during Q4 of bull years. But placing too much faith in historical peaks can be misleading. Here’s why.
Analysts consistently point to bullish Q4 performances in Bitcoin — claiming that the final quarter of the year often brings outsized gains in halving cycles (CoinTelegraph) Cointelegraph. These observations are real — but there’s a risk in over-reliance.
What if you’re jumping to conclusions by observing only the peaks, without considering sample size or broader context? This kind of reasoning can be compared to expecting “tails” on a coin just because previous flips were heads. Analyst PlanC recently highlighted that Bitcoin’s limited cycle history makes such predictions fragile at best. AInvest
Factors like institutional demand, macroeconomic conditions, and ETF inflows now play a much bigger role in influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory than historical patterns alone. AInvestCryptoPotato
Relying on pattern-based predictions — like expecting a Q4 peak — can be tempting. But insight comes from combining historical awareness with real-time data, on-chain analysis, and macro understanding. True edge comes from perspective, not repetition.
For a complete breakdown, check out the original press release:
Bitcoin Q4 Price Peak: Statistical Fallacy or Seasonality?
Bitcoin Q4 Price Peaks: Why Betting on Patterns Might Be a Statistical Fallacy was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
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