Bitcoin’s up over 25% since last week, and analysts at CryptoQuant reckon a new bull run has quietly begun. Though not officially just yet.
For that stamp of approval, price needs to close above the 365-day moving average, sat around US$83,000 (AU$115,563). Bitcoin’s currently hovering below it, near US$79,000 (AU$109,994).
Two things are at play according to the analysts: the US Treasury doubling its long-term bond buybacks from September, and Trump musing that Washington might start buying Bitcoin itself. Markets, predictably, got excited.
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It’s not the first time this zone’s played spoilsport. Swyftx Lead Analyst Pav Hundal points out that the same US$80-83k (AU$111.4k-115.5k) band capped Bitcoin’s last leg-up back in May, exactly where this latest rally’s weekly close landed too.
Hundal asked in his latest analysis:
Could this key level prove to be another barrier for BTC? Or could it provide the springboard for a move higher?
Swyftx Lead Analyst Pav Hundal His view: watch whether buyers can force a new weekly higher high in the next few days. Fail to do that, and last week’s rally starts looking like a short squeeze that ran out of steam rather than the start of something bigger.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score has leapt from 30 to 80 in a week, the strongest reading since October, when BTC was flirting with US$124,000 (AU$172,662). Eight of ten metrics the firm tracks are now bullish. Spot and futures demand are climbing together for the first time since Bitcoin’s last all-time high.
Not everyone’s cashing in calmly, though. Short-term holders pocketed US$1.2 billion (AU$1.67 billion) in profits in just three days, including a single-day record of US$614 million (AU$854 million).
Exchange inflows across Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP have all jumped to multi-month highs, mostly landing on Binance, which is usually a sign people fancy selling.
Meanwhile, researchers at Bernstein, a prominent Wall Street firm, have made new bullish claims. They call for US$125,000 (AU$174,012) – base or bull case – per BTC by late 2026.
According to a report seen by Cointelegraph, Bernstein’s base case has Bitcoin hitting US$150,000 (AU$208,825) by mid-2027, then climbing to a cycle peak around US$300,000 (AU$417,651) in 2029.
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The upside scenario goes even further: US$200,000 (AU$278,438) by mid-2027 and US$500,000 (AU$696,097) by 2029.
Either way, the long-term target doesn’t budge. Bernstein’s sticking with roughly US$1 million (AU$1.39 million) by 2033, base case or bull case.
The logic leans on Bitcoin’s old four-year rhythm, tied to the halving, which is the periodic event that slashes miner rewards. Bernstein slices each cycle into four stages: breakout, hype, drawdown, accumulation.
The post Bitcoin Eyes $83K Confirmation as Bernstein Bets on $1M by 2033 appeared first on Crypto News Australia.
