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XRP Price: How ETF Approval in October Could Push It Back Toward $5

Bitcoin slipped more than 2% after failing to build on recent gains, and Ethereum followed with a similar drop. XRP has not been spared, falling to $2.83, though the asset is still holding above critical support.

Support Holds, But Pressure Builds

The $2.74 zone has acted as XRP’s lifeline over recent weeks, repeatedly serving as a rebound point for buyers. A clean break below this level, however, would likely drag the price toward $2.46 or even $2.21, areas that analysts view as the final defensive line before steeper declines.

On the upside, resistance looms at $3.10, with a larger test at $3.40. Reclaiming this range would mark a significant shift in sentiment, potentially paving the way toward $3.80 or higher. Until that happens, the broader structure suggests XRP remains in a correction phase that began in late July.

The ETF Factor: October Looms Large

All eyes are on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which is reviewing a record number of XRP ETF applications. Grayscale, Bitwise, Franklin, and several other issuers have filed, and the final deadline for decisions is mid-October.

Bloomberg analysts estimate the odds of approval at around 90%, citing earlier approvals for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs as precedent. If the SEC gives the green light, XRP could become the third major crypto asset with a U.S.-listed spot ETF, unlocking significant institutional demand.

The market remembers how Bitcoin ETFs brought in billions within weeks of launch. A similar influx of capital into XRP could be the spark needed to push beyond $4 and potentially test new highs. Until then, traders expect speculation around the ETF timeline to be the dominant driver of volatility.

Market Sentiment Still Fragile

Despite long-term optimism, on-chain metrics suggest caution. Exchange inflows for XRP have climbed, signaling rising sell pressure. Whale activity has also tilted bearish, with several large wallets distributing into strength.

Open interest in XRP derivatives has declined, reflecting hesitancy among leveraged traders. Combined, these indicators paint a picture of a market waiting for a clear catalyst before committing to the next leg up.

Price Speculation: Bullish, Bearish, and Base Case

• Bullish Case:
  If XRP holds $2.74 and breaks above $3.10, momentum could quickly accelerate. An approved ETF in October would act as a rocket fuel, potentially driving XRP past $4 and into the $5–$6 range by year’s end.
• Bearish Case:
  Failure to defend $2.74 could send XRP tumbling toward $2.21. If the SEC delays or rejects ETF applications, the token could revisit deeper lows, potentially retesting the $2 mark before stabilizing.
• Base Case:
  XRP is likely to continue consolidating between $2.70 and $3.40 until the SEC makes its October ruling. Traders can expect volatility in both directions, but without a confirmed catalyst, the price is more likely to range than trend.

Outlook for September

XRP is at a critical juncture. Support at $2.74 is holding for now, but resistance levels remain unbroken. Until the ETF decision arrives, sideways trading appears most likely. If approval comes in October, XRP may finally have the trigger needed to re-enter a strong bull phase.

The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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