Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, started February trading near its lowest levels in more than a year as traders weigh a still-tough macro backdrop and the potential for further downside. The broader risk-off tone has been evident across traditional markets, with crypto prices pressured as investors assess inflation trajectories, policy expectations, and liquidity conditions. While some analysts point to oversold signals that could spark a relief rally, others warn that volatility may persist until clearer catalysts emerge and risk appetite returns.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Bearish
Price impact: Negative. The combination of macro headwinds, on-chain indicators, and lagging demand signals points to downside risk in the near term.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. Monitor for clearer confirmations of a bottom or a sustained rally before committing capital.
Market context: The spot-price dynamic for BTC is unfolding alongside a broader risk-off shift in markets, with liquidity concerns, inflation readings, and policy expectations shaping risk assets across equities, gold, and crypto.
Bitcoin’s latest price action matters because it sits at the intersection of macro liquidity dynamics and crypto-specific demand signals. As major economies grapple with inflation, corporate earnings, and evolving monetary policy, BTC has often acted as a barometer for risk appetite. The weekly picture—an RSI near oversold territory and price action that breached recent support levels—suggests traders are growing increasingly cautious about the near-term path for BTC. If the macro narrative remains dominated by policy uncertainty and liquidity tightening, further downside could materialize before a meaningful upturn takes hold.
Analysts have highlighted a set of genuine macro catalysts to watch. The market has been digesting the potential implications of a new Fed chair appointment and the resulting shifts in the U.S. dollar’s trajectory. A stronger dollar can weigh on non-yielding assets, including Bitcoin, as capital rotates toward safer havens or yield-driven instruments. In parallel, macro data releases this week—ranging from manufacturing and labor metrics to inflation gauges—are expected to set the tone for risk assets. The broader environment also features a wave of earnings from technology giants that could influence risk sentiment and liquidity conditions in the weeks ahead.
Within the crypto space, traders are parsing a mix of technicals and on-chain signals. The RSI and stochastic indicators on longer timeframes suggest that a bottom could take time to form, and some veteran analysts warn that meaningful reversals often require a sequence of confirmations rather than a single catalytic event. The narrative around CME gaps in the Bitcoin futures market also persists; gaps in the $84,000 and $95,000 regions have traders debating whether the latest move was a bear-market pause or a test of the downside narrative before a more substantial leg higher or lower is decided.
Meanwhile, market observers continue to weigh the impact of on-chain metrics that track demand and liquidity. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the price gap between Coinbase and Binance order books, has slipped into negative territory, signaling a relative lack of US demand for BTC at prevailing prices. CryptoQuant researchers described the current posture as a structural vacuum in US spot demand, a development that could translate into persistent selling pressure during local trading sessions if absent new buyers stepping in to bridge the gap.
In a broader context, traders are also watching the relationship between traditional safe-haven assets and crypto. Metals like gold have staged sharp moves amid shifting dollar dynamics, underscoring how macro factors can ripple through risk assets across asset classes. As investors balance potential risk-off strategies with the possibility of a crypto-led bounce, the market remains highly data-driven and dependent on evolving policy signals and macro data outcomes.
On a broader term of the cycle, some voices point to the possibility that Bitcoin could be signaling trouble ahead for financial market liquidity if risk-off sentiment remains elevated. The Market Mosaic newsletter highlighted a potential bearish head-and-shoulders pattern forming in BTC/USD and warned that continued downside could presage liquidity constraints later in the year. While this interpretation is contested by others who see oversold conditions as a reason to expect a rebound, the prevailing view remains cautious until the macro picture clarifies.
Specific price targets and potential turning points continue to populate trader chatter. One analyst warned that a close below a certain support band could open the door to a test of the 50,000 area, while another noted that a sustained move back above key resistance would be required to shift the narrative from risk-off to risk-on. In the near term, the market appears poised to trade in a wide range, with the direction likely to hinge on whether macro data ticks up or disappoints, and whether the dollar finds a bottom or resumes a new leg higher.
For now, the narrative remains firmly in the realm of caution. The confluence of technical oversold signals, negative demand indicators, and looming macro data releases paints a picture of a market that could remain under pressure as participants await clearer catalysts. As BTC and other assets continue to wrestle with evolving liquidity conditions and policy expectations, traders will be keenly watching for signs of a durable bottom or a renewed leg lower.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) began February near a 16-month trough as macro conditions tighten and risk appetite cools. The week opened with BTC/USD sliding to levels not seen since late 2024, a reminder that the bear phase could extend if demand does not reappear. Chart watchers have noted that the move occurred alongside a broader risk-off sweep across equities, precious metals, and even some energy markets, with traders scrutinizing how policy moves will shape the liquidity landscape in the months ahead. The sentiment remains cautious, with some participants pointing to oversold conditions as a potential precursor to a relief rally, while others warn that the macro setup could still produce new lows before any credible bottom takes shape. Data from TradingView shows the price continuing to test support areas as market participants await clearer catalysts.
Technical indicators paint a nuanced picture. On the weekly chart, the relative strength index (RSI) sits in the low 30s—a region historically associated with oversold conditions. Traders have been debating whether that level marks a capitulation moment or merely a precursor to a longer consolidation. In one notable view, market commentator Mags flagged that the RSI near current levels mirrors late-2022 bear-market bottoms, suggesting that a bottom could eventually emerge, but not without patience. Another popular narrative centers on the stochastic RSI, which has signaled that macro bottoming may take time, underscoring that reversals in BTC often require a sequence of confirmations rather than a single event.
“At $76k, the BTC 1-day RSI is the most oversold it’s been since $26k,” one analyst noted, signaling that the front-end timeframes are deeply oversold even as longer horizons reveal a still-broad downtrend.
Market observers are also watching the so-called CME gaps, which mark unfinished business in the Bitcoin futures market. The notable gaps sit around the $84,000 and $95,000 zones, and the chatter centers on whether the latest price action represents a ‘fake-out’ to the downside or simply the latest step in a protracted correction. Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise, suggested that a large CME gap implies the latest move could be a setup for a future reversion as traders reassess momentum and liquidity conditions.
The interplay between macro dynamics and crypto-specific demand signals matters because it shapes near-term price discovery for BTC and related assets. If the dollar begins to show resilience and liquidity remains tight, Bitcoin could face further pressure, particularly given negative US demand signals like the Coinbase Premium. On the other hand, a sustained improvement in macro data or a shift in policy expectations could catalyze a risk-on phase that would likely lift BTC alongside other risk assets. The current setup underscores the sensitivity of crypto markets to traditional financial-market developments and policy expectations, reinforcing the need for disciplined risk management and clear, data-driven decision making for investors.
Beyond price action, the market is paying close attention to the possibility of a macro liquidity crunch later in the year. Mosaic Asset Company has highlighted a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern in BTC/USD and warned that persistent downside could foreshadow liquidity stress in broader markets. While this interpretation is contested, the emphasis on liquidity underscores a broader narrative: crypto markets often reflect the health of the traditional financial system, and a deterioration in liquidity can translate into stubborn downside pressure even when technicals show oversold conditions.
Ultimately, the path for Bitcoin remains tethered to the evolving macro story. If inflation cools and the Fed signals a less aggressive stance on tightening, BTC could carve out a bottom and test the upper bands of its recent ranges. Conversely, a renewed hawkish tilt or a surprise deterioration in risk sentiment could extend the decline toward more meaningful support levels. Traders will be watching for catalysts—ranging from employment data to inflation metrics and central-bank commentary—that could tilt the balance between fear and opportunity in this still-nervy market.
This article was originally published as Bitcoin Poised to Dip Below $50,000 Before Bottoming Out on Crypto Breaking News – your trusted source for crypto news, Bitcoin news, and blockchain updates.
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