Bitcoin trades this August 10 within the $64,500–$64,900 range, showing an approximate 1% gain on the session and a weekly advance exceeding 3%. BTC manages to hold the psychological $64,000 level, yet price action remains trapped in a range that has progressively compressed: from the $58,000–$66,000 band observed in June, the market has moved into an even narrower range between $62,000 and $66,000 over recent weeks.
The relevant data point is not the current price, but rather what on-chain indicators and technical models are signaling about the phase of the cycle in which the market currently resides.
Glassnode, through its Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap, shows that 45 Bitcoin price metrics have remained in capitulation phase for the most extended period since the FTX collapse in late 2022. The heatmap, which uses blue to indicate capitulation and red to signal overheating near peaks, has maintained a blue predominance throughout all of 2026.
Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft has noted that the indicator currently stands at “its coldest phase since FTX: late in the bear market, but not yet the unanimous deep blue that previously marked a floor.”
The heatmap is not stating that the bottom is confirmed; it is stating that conditions are compatible with a late-stage bear market, but the definitive floor signal — that moment when practically all indicators simultaneously turn to deep blue — has not yet occurred.
Glassnode’s Bitcoin Cycle Composite, which compresses 45 on-chain indicators into a single score from 0 to 100, currently sits at 19.9, in the cold zone reserved for capitulation phases. Three months ago, the composite median was around 33. The movement has been rapid and deep: 41 out of 45 indicators are now in the lowest two quintiles of their historical ranges.
From CryptoQuant, the Adaptive Sell-side Risk Ratio provides independent confirmation. This indicator has dropped to 0.031, placing it in the 3rd percentile of the current halving cycle (April 2024–present).
In other words, the ratio is lower than recorded on 97% of days since the halving. This is not a single-day anomaly: the ratio has remained below the 25th percentile since late January, and its two-month average has stayed below the 5%.
CryptoQuant describes this situation as a prolonged phase of compression and market repricing.
The literature on Bitcoin cycle analysis is clear on one point: historical bottoms have only been confirmed when nearly all indicators turned to deep blue simultaneously. The current panel sits “one step away” from that unanimous capitulation signal.
This caution is not academic. In the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 cycles, the sell-side risk ratio remained at its lower bound for months. Prices continued to move within wide ranges and periodically established new lows during those periods.
The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) currently stands between 1.15 and 1.25, significantly below the October 2025 peak. Although this indicates that overbought conditions are absent, there is also no evidence of aggressive capital inflows. The MVRV Z-Score is at 0.41, suggesting Bitcoin trades below its realized value, but holders remain in profit positions without significant selling pressure.
The percentage of supply in profit has risen to 57.5% from the yearly low of 46.2% recorded on June 30. However, historically, exits from bear markets have required this indicator to exceed 64% before a structural trend change can be confirmed.
On Bitcoin’s daily chart, an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is forming. The pattern features:
The technical trigger is clear: a decisive break above $66,800 would confirm the pattern, with a measured target projected toward $76,000.
Thomas Bulkowski, a recognized expert in chart patterns, identifies this formation as highly reliable. According to his data, drawn from thousands of charts over years in traditional equity markets, 71% of these patterns reach their price target, with a failure rate of only 11%.
However, the caveat is mandatory: the pattern remains “a work in progress, not a confirmed signal.” It activates only if price breaks and holds above the neckline. Chartists also note that a break below the 50-day moving average, currently at $63,321, would be an early sign that the pattern is losing validity.
For the week ending August 7, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $853.54 million, the highest weekly figure since mid-April. BlackRock’s IBIT captured $693 million, or 81% of the total.
This seemingly positive data merits a closer examination.
First: ETF inflows do not always reflect growing optimism about the crypto market as a whole. CryptoQuant analysts note that fresh cash entries, portfolio rebalancing, moves between ETFs, or basis-trade strategies between ETFs and futures are possible sources of these flows. The Coinbase Premium remains low, spot demand has not recovered, and options markets maintain moderate bullish expectations.
Second: the $853 million from last week has not meaningfully pushed price higher. Bitcoin remained around $64,000–$65,000 throughout the week. Resistance in the $64,800–$65,400 range has rejected breakout attempts on multiple occasions.
Third: year-to-date, ETFs accumulate net outflows of approximately $4.5 billion. This partially explains the selling pressure observed during the first half of the year, when Bitcoin fell 33% to below $60,000 by late June.
Historical context is instructive: between April and October 2025, Bitcoin rose from approximately $75,000 to an all-time high of $126,000. During that period, weekly ETF inflows exceeded $1 billion on several occasions. The conclusion is that Bitcoin will need consistently strong flows to mount a significant price rally.
The Federal Reserve kept rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range at its July meeting, completing the fifth consecutive pause. However, the decision was not unanimous: three dissenting votes favored a 25-basis-point hike, the first hawkish dissent of this magnitude since 2016.
The July employment report, published on August 7, showed a -23,000 jobs figure, against a forecast of +80,000. Additionally, May and June data were revised downward by 103,000 jobs.
The market reacted immediately. The implied probability of a September rate hike fell from approximately 57% to 44%, while the expectation of no change rose above 60%.
This shift is relevant for Bitcoin because rate expectations affect US Treasury yields, the dollar, and overall liquidity conditions. Weaker employment data reduces pressure on the Fed to maintain a restrictive stance, which in theory benefits risk assets.
Nevertheless, the macroeconomic landscape is far from settled. The July CPI data, due on August 12, stands as the most relevant short-term catalyst. If CPI comes in higher than expected, or if the Fed adopts a hawkish tone at its Jackson Hole symposium (August 27), rate-hike expectations could quickly revive.
In this context, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 remains a factor to monitor. Although some analyses suggest this correlation has decreased over the course of 2026, other data indicate that correlations with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have increased in recent periods. According to NYDIG, statistically only about 25% of Bitcoin’s price movements can be explained by its correlation with equity markets, suggesting that the asset’s own fundamentals still carry weight.
Bitcoin sits at an inflection point that on-chain data describe as compatible with a late-stage bear market, yet the same data warn that the definitive bottom has not yet been confirmed.
The indicators supporting the thesis that the bear market is nearing its end are solid:
The indicators that prevent a definitive conclusion are equally relevant:
The market thus finds itself in a structural accumulation zone between $57,000 and $64,000. The question is not whether Bitcoin is in a late phase of the bear cycle — on-chain data indicate that it is — but rather when and under what conditions the confirmation of a new bull cycle will occur.
That confirmation will arrive when price breaks the $66,800 resistance on volume, when ETFs register sustained positive flows over time, and when the Fed provides a clear signal on the direction of interest rates. Until those conditions are met, the market will remain in this compression phase, awaiting a catalyst that defines the next direction.
