Bitfinex has published its latest weekly cryptocurrency market analysis, outlining a crucial four-week period that could determine whether expectations for interest rate cuts remain subdued.
The report identifies a series of key U.S. economic data releases and the upcoming Federal Reserve blackout period as pivotal for both traditional and digital asset markets. Analysts note that these developments are expected to have significant implications for risk sentiment and cryptocurrency flows.
The first major data point is the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday, April 3. March employment figures are anticipated to show growth between 40,000 and 85,000 jobs, with the consensus around 60,000. This would represent a recovery from February’s unexpected contraction of 92,000 jobs, a figure far below forecasts and considered by analysts to be an outlier.
The report suggests that positive job growth could support risk appetite, while another negative print might heighten expectations of a rate cut, traditionally viewed as favorable for cryptocurrency inflows. However, the analysis notes that recession risks are considered low, supported by capital expenditure and research and development among top S&P 500 companies, alongside government spending.
Attention then shifts to the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Thursday, April 9, which remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. Analysts expect inflation readings to remain elevated due to sustained energy price pressures and rising costs in services, which could further reduce the likelihood of a near-term rate cut.
The subsequent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday, April 10, is also projected to show higher-than-expected figures, reinforcing the prevailing no-cut narrative.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on April 28-29 is expected to leave rates unchanged. Market participants are likely to focus on the tone of officials during the press conference for insights into the timing of future policy adjustments.
On-chain metrics indicate that the cryptocurrency market is not overvalued. The Market Value to Realised Value (MVRV) ratio ranges between 1.2 and 1.8, far below historical cycle peaks. While recent buyers face unrealised losses of nearly 28.5 percent over the past year, the majority of holders remain in profit.
Exchange-held bitcoin has dropped to 5.88 percent of total supply, a seven-year low, suggesting accumulation into long-term storage or ETF custody. Stablecoin market capitalization has reached an all-time high of $316 billion, pointing to significant liquidity available for re-entry.
Overall, Bitfinex characterizes the current market as a correction rather than a capitulation, with broader metrics indicating sustained confidence in cryptocurrency among long-term holders.
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