Bittensor (TAO) Faces 200 SMA Rejection as Analysts Eye $165 Risk

28-Feb-2026 TronWeekly
TAO

Bittensor (TAO) is navigating a crucial phase as market momentum shows mixed signals across key trading pairs. While the token has posted modest weekly gains, declining volume and repeated rejections near major moving averages suggest lingering selling pressure.

Bittensor (TAO) is trading at $180.86, on Friday, February 27, . The trading volume is down by 28% and currently stands at 113.16 million. The price of the TAO token is up by 3.27% over the last week, according to CoinMarketCap.

Source: CoinMarketCap

TAO Faces Downward Pressure After 200 SMA Failure

Umair Crypto, an analyst, highlighted that TAO is still experiencing downward pressure in its USDT pair. TAO failed to rise above its 200 SMA for the fourth time. 

The failure to rise above its 200 SMA is leading to a loss in its short-term momentum. The rejection to rise above its 50 SMA is also at risk as a result of this failure.

The analyst stated that when a token repeatedly fails to rise above its 200 SMA, it is likely to keep going downwards. There is a possibility that the price of the token will go below $165.

This scenario is even more likely if the buyers fail to hold at current levels in lower time frames. He emphasized that the current structure of the TAO-USDT is still fragile.

TAO/BTC is the stronger pair, according to the analyst, as it is still holding above its 4-hour 200 SMA, which is an important level in determining the direction of the trend. Moreover, the RSI is likely to test its trendline soon, but the structure is still in place as long as the 200 SMA is holding.

Source: X

Also Read: Bittensor (TAO) Price Under Pressure: Is $160 the Next Critical Support?

Bearish Shift Possible if TAO-BTC Loses Its 200 SMA

Umair emphasized that this might even transfer to the USDT pair, where the price might make an attempt to go back above the 200 SMA. However, the price might dip lower towards the $150-$155 range before making such an attempt.

If the price of the BTC pair loses its 200 SMA, the overall structure turns bearish, according to the analyst, and the price might even go lower towards $140.

Another analyst, GainMuse, mentioned that TAO has turned its recent weakness into a sharp rebound. He termed this a bear trap that has turned into a strong comeback. 

Analysts identified that the support zone for the coin is between $168 and $176. He placed an upside target price for the token at $230.

Source: X

Futures Volume and Open Interest Continue to Drop

Derivatives for TAO show a reduction in activity. CoinGlass data shows that future volume reduced by 20.40% to $302.31 million. The open interest decreased by 1.35% to $136.62 million. The OI-weighted funding rate is at -0.0016%.

Source: CoinGlass

The token is at a critical point. Analysts remain divided as to its direction. The BTC pair remains the main indicator for the next major movement.

Also Read: XRP Stuck in Descending Channel: Rally to $1.80 or Fall?

Also read: SIREN plunges after 1M token deposit: Will $0.30 support fall next?
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