Blockchain analytics from Alpharactal shows that wallets holding ADA for multiple years have been increasing balances since 2021, showing little inclination to sell.
One reason for this patience is price context: ADA still trades well below its all-time high of $3.09 set in 2021, meaning holders from that era may be waiting for a fuller recovery before reducing exposure.
Short-term holders, typically quick to sell into rallies, have surprised analysts this cycle. Instead of heavy distribution, they’ve made small additions to their ADA positions, even with the token posting a 150% year-on-year gain. This softer selling pressure is helping to stabilize the market.
On-chain metrics also support a bullish narrative. Cardano’s adjusted Sharpe Ratio — a risk-return measurement — sits around 1. In past cycles, readings near 2 have aligned with rapid price acceleration, suggesting the market may not have peaked yet.
Fueling speculation further, prediction markets on Polymarket give ADA an 80% chance of receiving US ETF approval before year-end. Such a development could attract new institutional flows and significantly expand demand for the asset.
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