Chief research analyst at the blockchain data and intelligence platform Glassnode, CryptoVizArt, provided an in-depth cryptocurrency market analysis noting that indicators highlighted in November suggested a risk of a deeper and more prolonged bear market. With much of the anticipated weakness now unfolding, it is an appropriate time to reassess these signals and evaluate the overall market structure.
The analysis points out that continued excessive selling by Long-Term Holders (LTHs) has pressured market absorption, with approximately 3.8 million BTC realized in profit since prices surpassed the 2021–2022 all-time highs. Recently, however, LTH distribution has slowed, and a sustained reduction in profit-taking is considered a necessary condition for forming a durable market bottom.
Unrealized losses have stabilized at around 5% of market capitalization, marking the highest stress level of the current cycle, though still significantly below the extreme loss levels seen in severe bear markets, such as following the FTX collapse. Bitcoin is currently trading near $90,000, a range where roughly 20–30% of supply remains at a loss. This setup closely resembles the market conditions in the first quarter of 2022, reflecting elevated stress but not the widespread capitulation that typically characterizes the later stages of a bear market.
— CryptoVizArt.₿ (@CryptoVizArt) December 23, 2025
Halloween Market Check [UPDATE]
In November, we outlined several indicators that pointed to the risk of a deeper and more prolonged bear market phase.
With much of that weakness now playing out, it’s timely to revisit those signals and reassess the broader market structure.… https://t.co/TzX3btPDuo pic.twitter.com/4noym4Ftt3
The latest analysis gains relevance in light of recent reports suggesting the onset of a new bear market. According to analysts at CryptoQuant, Bitcoin demand growth has slowed considerably since October 2025, indicating the potential start of another bearish cycle.
Researchers at the platform also observed declining buying pressure in both market and on-chain metrics. Buy-volume divergence in the Binance futures market has been gradually decreasing since August, mirroring patterns seen in 2021, and this trend has yet to show signs of reversal.
At the same time, the number of active addresses has dropped sharply, reflecting lower market participation and reduced overall activity. Price movements have followed a trajectory similar to the 2021 cycle, suggesting that the current post-peak phase may correspond to a final distribution period. No market reversal has occurred within anticipated support zones, implying that recovery is likely to require time.
Despite these indicators, not all analysts expect further declines. Michaël van de Poppe described Bitcoin’s recent rebound from $90,000 as “not a bad sign for now,” noting that traders are attempting to establish the $86,000 level as support, which could provide a foundation to challenge key resistance zones in the near term.
At the time of this report, Bitcoin is trading at $86,760, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.81% over the past 24 hours. According to CoinMarketCap data, the cryptocurrency reached a high of $88,174 and a low of $86,691 during this period.
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