Crypto news today is dominated by macro. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at its strongest level in more than four years, oil crashed after Washington called off strikes on Iran, US equities opened sharply higher, and Bitcoin pushed back above $63,800. On the policy side, Bernstein published a note on what happens to crypto if the CLARITY Act dies in the Senate.
Here is everything moving the crypto market today.
The market is broadly green, but this is a grind higher rather than a melt-up.
$Bitcoin trades around $63,780, up roughly 1.1% over 24 hours, after defending support near $62,500 over the weekend and reclaiming the $63,800 area during US hours. $Ethereum sits near $1,850, $XRP around $1.08 and Solana close to $73. $Cardano is the standout of the week, trading near $0.187 after a gain of more than 14%.
Two things are capping the move. Bitcoin is still trading below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs at roughly $64,680, $67,200 and $73,000, so this remains a recovery inside a downtrend. And sentiment took a hit from the Coldcard hardware wallet exploit over the weekend, in which roughly 1,367 BTC was stolen, reopening the self-custody security debate.
The July ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 55.6, up 2.3 points from June's 53.3 and comfortably above the 54 consensus. That is the highest reading since May 2022 and the seventh consecutive month of expansion in US manufacturing.
The internals backed up the headline. Production surged to 58.5 from 52.2, New Orders rose to 56.7, New Export Orders returned to expansion at 53.0 from 48.5, and Employment moved back above the line at 52.8 from 49.7. Only Inventories slipped, by 0.2 points.
The number crypto traders should care about most is Prices Paid, which eased to 71.1 from 73.0. Strong growth with cooling input costs is the mix risk assets like best: expansion that does not immediately force the Fed to turn hawkish again.
Crypto X was quick to note that this is the seventh straight print above 52, a streak last seen in Q4 2020, right as the biggest bull run in crypto history began. Worth flagging, but treat it as context rather than a signal. The 2020 setup also came with zero rates and mass stimulus that simply do not exist in 2026.
Energy was the bigger driver of Monday's risk-on tone. President Trump said over the weekend that he had called off planned strikes against Iran and that talks would resume Monday, with a focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude repriced hard. WTI fell close to 8% at the lows, trading down through the mid-$78s before stabilising near $79.60, while Brent dropped more than 5% into the low $83s. OPEC+ added pressure by approving another production increase of roughly 188,000 barrels per day from September. Context: Brent rallied around 25% in July on war risk, so this is a geopolitical premium unwinding rather than a demand collapse.
Equities took the handoff. The Dow climbed 600 to 700 points in morning trade, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both gained over 1%, Amazon crossed $3 trillion in market value for the first time, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell roughly 6 basis points to about 4.69%.
That chain is what matters for crypto: cheaper oil leads to lower inflation expectations, which leads to lower yields, which leads to more room for the Fed to cut.
This is the piece of today's crypto news being spun hardest on social media, so worth stating plainly.
Bernstein's research team, led by Gautam Chhugani, said in a Monday note that the odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 are fading, with the Senate holding only the coming week before recess to move what the analysts describe as the most consequential crypto market structure bill in US history. Galaxy Research recently cut its odds of passage to 30%, and Polymarket traders now price it near 31%, down 9 points on the month.
Bernstein's base case if the bill fails is not bullish in the near term. The analysts expect an immediate negative reaction across digital assets and see room for another leg lower in valuations.
The constructive part is what follows. Bernstein expects the SEC and CFTC to accelerate rulemaking under Project Crypto regardless, moving faster on token taxonomy, DeFi guidance, self-custody rules and an innovation exemption for token issuance. CFTC Chair Michael Selig has warned publicly that regulators would end up writing all the rules if Congress does not act, and SEC Chair Paul Atkins has said his agency stands ready to fill the gap. Bernstein also sees the current downturn bottoming in late Q3 or early Q4, ahead of the midterms.
The honest read: crypto clarity is coming either way, but the legislative route is faster and more durable, and the regulatory route may cost the market a drawdown first.
Strong growth, falling energy prices, falling yields and regulatory movement in one direction or another is the best macro mix crypto has had all summer. It is still not the same thing as a bull run starting today.
