Data from the platform showed a sudden surge in bets favoring Maria Corina Machado, Venezuela’s opposition leader, in the hours leading up to the official announcement on Friday. Machado ultimately won the 2025 Peace Prize for her efforts to defend democracy in her country.
The spike in trading occurred just after midnight local time – only hours before the award was revealed at 11 a.m. in Oslo. According to Norwegian media outlet Finansavisen, at least three wallets made aggressive wagers on Machado, collectively earning around $90,000 following the announcement.
In response, Nobel Institute spokesperson Erik Aasheim confirmed that the organization had launched an internal investigation, citing the reports from Aftenposten and Finansavisen. “We are looking into the matter,” he said, declining to provide further details.
Sources close to the selection process told local media that the five-member Nobel Committee had finalized its decision on Monday, four days before the public announcement. Machado herself was reportedly informed just minutes before the ceremony began.
Officials are now examining whether confidential information about the decision was leaked ahead of time, potentially allowing traders to profit through Polymarket’s decentralized betting markets.
If verified, the incident would mark one of the first known cases where a cryptocurrency prediction platform was used to front-run one of the world’s most prestigious awards.
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