Dogecoin has shown similar price patterns during its past cycles, with notable surges in 2017 and 2021. As the digital asset continues to follow this rhythm, there are increasing signs that another breakout could be on the horizon. Alongside its historical patterns, the recent filing by Grayscale to convert its Dogecoin Trust into an ETF could boost investor confidence, potentially paving the way for another price rally.
Dogecoin’s price movements have consistently followed cyclical patterns, marked by periods of consolidation followed by sharp rallies. In 2017, the price of DOGE surged from under $0.0002 to nearly $0.017, and in 2021, the rally took the price from around $0.0022 to a peak of $0.70. In both cases, the rallies followed a prolonged period of consolidation, where the price held above the 50 EMA, signaling strong upward conditions.
Source: X
As of 2025, the market structure remains similar, with DOGE holding above the 50 EMA while retesting a descending trendline near $0.26. This setup echoes the conditions seen in previous cycles and has led some analysts to suggest that a breakout could be imminent. If the pattern holds, the price could surge toward $1 or higher, similar to the explosive rallies of 2017 and 2021.
In a significant move, Grayscale has filed to convert its Dogecoin Trust into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) under the ticker GDOG. This step is expected to bring Dogecoin closer to mainstream financial markets by providing a regulated investment vehicle for institutional investors. If approved, the ETF would be traded on NYSE Arca, with Coinbase serving as the custodian and prime broker.
This filing aligns with recent changes in the SEC’s approach to crypto funds, which have made it easier for such funds to gain approval. Grayscale’s ETF move comes after the launch of similar products for other cryptocurrencies, including Dogecoin’s rival, XRP. The filing suggests that institutional interest in Dogecoin is growing, which could provide a new wave of investors looking to gain exposure to the meme coin.
Data from CoinGlass shows that 77% of accounts are currently holding long positions on Dogecoin, signaling strong speculative optimism. This trend mirrors the enthusiasm seen during previous rallies, when high levels of long positions were observed ahead of price surges. The current bullish sentiment is also supported by the growing interest in the proposed ETF, which could attract additional retail and institutional investors.
The high percentage of long positions indicates that many traders expect the price of Dogecoin to rise. As a result, market participants are increasingly optimistic about the possibility of a breakout, especially with historical cycles showing similar setups before major price increases.
As the price of Dogecoin hovers around $0.26, the potential for another breakout remains high. The technical indicators suggest that the cryptocurrency could follow the same trajectory as in 2017 and 2021, where extended consolidation periods were followed by substantial price increases. Combined with Grayscale’s ETF filing and strong speculative optimism in the market, Dogecoin’s price could see a significant upward move in the coming months.
With the market structure showing similarities to previous cycles, and institutional interest likely to grow with the ETF filing, the outlook for Dogecoin remains positive. If the current trend continues, a move toward $1 or beyond could be within reach, marking another milestone in the cryptocurrency’s history.
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