For the third Monday in a row, trading in the oil market has opened with a bullish gap, although this time it is not as wide as the gap seen, for example, on 9 March. The reason for the volatility is clear — the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East, with no visible signs of de-escalation so far.
According to the latest media reports:
→ the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed;
→ over the weekend the United States struck Iran’s Kharg Island, a key hub for the country’s oil export infrastructure;
→ Iran launched an attack on the oil port of Fujairah in the UAE.
While analysing WTI price movements on 11 March, we:
→ identified a local descending channel (shown with red lines);
→ highlighted a sharp reversal on 10 March (marked with an arrow).
Since then, buying pressure has continued to strengthen, largely driven by developments in the Middle East. As a result:
→ the local descending channel was broken to the upside;
→ the breakout zone later acted as support;
→ the XTI/USD chart formed the structure for an ascending channel (shown in blue).
At present, the market retains a bullish bias. For instance, the pullback from B to C represents roughly a 50% retracement of the A–B impulse, while WTI prices remain close to the psychological level of $100 per barrel.
However, the candlestick structure at the market open (marked with an arrow) suggests that sellers were able to push prices lower. Therefore, even if we see an attempt to break above the $100 level in the near term, it may struggle to gain strong momentum.
