General Outlook
The August Non-Farm Payrolls report showed the US economy adding only 22,000 jobs, with unemployment rising to 4.3%. Rate-cut expectations remain firmly in place, with markets pricing a high chance of a 25 bp cut at the 17 September FOMC meeting. The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed Friday near 97.74, close to a four-month low. The upcoming week is dominated by Thursday’s twin events — US CPI (11 Sept, 08:30 ET) and the ECB policy decision (11 Sept, 14:15/14:45 CEST) — followed by University of Michigan sentiment (12 Sept, 10:00 ET).
EUR/USD
The pair closed Friday around 1.1723 (ECB ref: 1.1697). Immediate resistance stands at 1.1720–1.1760; a break would open 1.1800–1.1850. On the downside, support comes in at 1.1640–1.1600, then 1.1550. The short-term bias stays cautiously constructive while markets lean toward Fed easing. However, a hot US CPI print could lift the dollar and stall EUR gains, while a dovish ECB could also limit upside.
XAU/USD (Gold)
Gold settled Friday at $3,586.81/oz, after touching a record near $3,600 intraday. Resistance is layered at $3,600–3,650, then $3,700. Initial support is $3,540–3,500, with stronger backing near $3,450. Softer inflation or weak sentiment would encourage dip-buying, while an upside CPI surprise could trigger profit-taking and a pullback toward supports.
BTC/USD
bitcoin trades this weekend around $110,700–111,000, consolidating below its mid-August record above $123,000. Immediate resistance is $112,500–115,000, then $118,000–120,000. Closest support sits at $108,000–105,000; a break lower could test $103,000, while a close above $115,000 would restore bullish momentum. Macro drivers remain aligned with risk appetite: a benign CPI outcome would likely underpin crypto strength.
Conclusion
During 08–12 September, EUR/USD retains a slight upside tilt as Fed rate-cut expectations stay firm, gold remains well supported near record territory, and bitcoin consolidates just below its August peak. Thursday’s CPI and ECB decision are the week’s defining catalysts; a stronger US inflation print could rapidly reset expectations, lifting the dollar and triggering corrections across bullion and crypto.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 08–12, 2025 was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
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