The Bull Run is Quietly Loading

How I am setting up for 10–20X returns on my portfolio this cycle

In the 2020/2021 cycle I invested heavily in BTC and ETH options on the Canadian ETF’s back when BTC was just coming out of its bear market blues, and BTC was roughly $29,000. Those options paid off over 10X returns, even while having been bought 2X off the bottom. As importantly, they involved zero altcoin specific risk, minimum counterparty risk (regulated ETF’s) and no trading and constant position management .. AND could be bought in my retirement account or tax free savings account.

I bought, I held about 2 years, and I sold at 10–12X the price. Original article written in July 2023 below:

Best Bear Market Opportunity Yet

I managed those returns despite buying the BTC and ETH options after Bitcoin had doubled from its bear market Bottom in Oct of 2022. Now, we are roughly 35% off the bottom (which I think is very likely THE bottom), and the opportunity is on par with the previous cycle.

How I am building my position:

I am not ready to divulge all the specifics just yet, as my strategy is likely to evolve as we near the end of the bear market. That said, here is the gist of it:

• I have purchased 30% of my portfolio into spot BTC, ETH and SOL.
• I maintain about 10% of my portfolio in Altcoins I have held through the bear, and newly acquired ones soon to be launched ($XBG, $PROPR, $JUP, $BORG mainly)
• I have started to accumulate my options positions, in a careful measured manner as I still expect some volatitlity heading into the midterm US elections (could see a short term pullback in crypto)
• I will deploy the remaining cash hard into BTCC.B and ETHH and bSOL long dated options (Mar 2029) in the even we get a pullback into the low 70s or high 60’s in Bitcoin.
• I will not try to hit the exact bottom, or else I would simply be permanently sidelined for fear of missing it. DCA over the next 4–8 weeks.
• In the event we do not get a pullback by mid Nov 2026, I will deploy in fully regardless.

Bullrun Targets:

I do believe Bitcoin will have a solid bull run, but also concede that dimishing returns are a mathematical reality.

BTC Targets:

• Bear Case: $200K
• Base Case: $250K
• Bull Case: $300K
• Outside Chance (5–10%) : $500K + , Fundamental structural change yields a massive BTC bull run where sovereign funds are acquiring BTC for national security as fiat money begins to overdose on debt.

ETH and SOL are more difficult to predict, particularly given the capital drain from AI stonks and Meme coins.

That said, I believe ETH has a shot at some redemption here as corporations and large entities gravitate towards L2 chain they can customize and control. I will refine these targets in the coming months as Robinhood chain and Solana play out their game of meme coin capture, and provide them by year-end in an update article.

Conclusion:

To be frank, the real talent at this point is to ignore all the noise on crypto X, and make a plan and stick to it. If you are like me, this big move up caught you somewhat off guard, and perhaps more sidelined that you would like. I have had a battle with the FOMO demons for weeks now, and winning that battle is what will set the stage for huge gains.

The timeline is far too bullish, and my expectation at this point is that we take a bit of a breather and pull back into the low 70K, or high 60K range BTC, at which point I will not try to time my entries but will buy hard in expectation of a big 2027 and 2028. Then sit back, stomach the volatilty, and cash in in a couple years while 90% of crypto X is trying to predict the hourly charts and missing the 300–400% gains on spot BTC (and 1000%–1500% on call options)

Good luck out there, and see you on the next one!

Sovereign Crypto (aka RickyBobby)

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Disclosures:

• I own or am accumulating the above mentioned tokens/investments.
• Not financial advice.
• I rebalance my portfolio occasionally and the above may change from time to time.

The Bull Run is Quietly Loading was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.