In a recent forecast, the firm laid out three possible outcomes for BTC’s 2025 performance, all tied to how much institutional capital continues to enter spot Bitcoin ETFs.
In its base case, Citigroup sees Bitcoin reaching $135,000 by year-end, assuming moderate inflows of around $15 billion. If institutional buying gains further momentum, the bank’s bullish scenario places Bitcoin just under $200,000, driven by accelerated ETF demand. On the flip side, a slowdown in capital flows could spark a downturn, though Citi didn’t specify how deep that could go.
What’s clear is that ETF-related activity now dominates Bitcoin’s price action. The bank noted that over 40% of BTC’s price movement this year has been tied to these financial products—outpacing older models like stock-to-flow or network usage.
With funds like BlackRock’s IBIT rapidly approaching $100 billion in assets, and Bitcoin’s exposure increasingly baked into mainstream portfolios, Citi suggests that price volatility will largely reflect ETF buying and selling pressure.
In short, Bitcoin’s next big move may not be about mining difficulty or wallet addresses—it’s about whether Wall Street keeps buying.
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