In September 2025, gold extended its fourth consecutive week of gains and set a new record high at $3,659 per ounce. Bitcoin investors eagerly watched, waiting for BTC to follow as the correlation between the two assets drew more attention.
However, capital flows may present a more complex picture. The rally in precious metals is also believed to be diverting some investor interest away from Bitcoin.
Black Swan Capitalist Versan Aljarrah, citing Crescat Capital data on X, noted that foreign central banks now hold more gold than US Treasuries for the first time since 1996. Based on this, he forecasted that gold could climb to $4,000 or higher.
Other analysts added more reasons behind gold’s continued surge. Analyst EndGame Macro explained on X that gold has broken above its inflation-adjusted peak from 1980, ending a 45-year stretch.
This development is not random. It reflects a broader decline in confidence in the current monetary system, influenced by ballooning US debt, doubts about the Fed’s credibility, rising geopolitical tensions, and record-breaking central bank purchases from emerging markets.
“Gold doesn’t just rally because people suddenly like shiny metal, it rallies because confidence in the system is slipping,” EndGame Macro said.
Similarly, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned about a stagflationary environment caused by global debt burdens. He emphasized that the financial system relies heavily on turning debt into money. Yet the lack of cash today makes USD devaluation against other currencies increasingly attractive. As a result, gold is expected to outperform.
Joe Consorti, a well-known Bitcoin analyst on X, pointed out that gold typically leads BTC by about 100 days because gold has 10 times more liquidity and wider distribution.
Some analysts use a 90-day lag instead of 100. But overall, the consensus remains that Bitcoin usually follows gold within roughly three months.
This perspective frames BTC as “an echo” of gold. With the first maintenance rate cut expected next week, Q4 2025 looks set for strong growth.
“BTC is an echo boom. 1st maintenance rate cut next week. Q4 setup looks great,” Consorti predicted.
Tephra Digital reinforced this view by examining Bitcoin’s correlation with global M2 supply. Their chart showed that BTC tends to follow M2 expansion with a 102-day lag and gold’s rally with a 200-day lag.
“If Bitcoin’s lagged M2 and gold correlations hold, the rest of the year could be very interesting. Charts below point to $167k–185k,” Tephra Digital LLC forecasted.
Although technical perspectives differ slightly, both Joe Consorti and Tephra Digital align on a bullish outlook for gold and Bitcoin.
Despite the optimism, some concerns persist. Silver recently broke above $41, its highest level since 2012. This has sparked arguments that gold and silver may attract more capital than BTC, potentially shifting flows into precious metals.
“It seems like capital is starting to rotate out of assets that had skyrocketed, like Bitcoin, and into traditional safe havens like precious metals,” investor LBroad observed.
Additionally, Economist Peter Schiff highlighted that Bitcoin, when valued in gold, is currently about 16% lower than its peak in November 2021. This indicates a broader trend where investors are favoring precious metals over assets like Bitcoin.
The post Gold’s Record Run in September Could Send Bitcoin to $185,000, Analysts Say appeared first on BeInCrypto.
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