Bernstein analysts argue that Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year halving cycle has effectively ended due to institutional ETF inflows. VanEck’s head of research Matthew Sigel, shared the firm’s latest note on X, showing that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw less than 5% outflows even as Bitcoin dropped 30% to around $92,000.
As we explained in great details in our recent article, Bitcoin halving is famously known as a programmed event within the blockchain protocol that occurs in abrupt patterns every four years that reducing the reward miners receive for processing blocks by 50%.
Bernstein’s new research, however, argues that the halving’s influence on market cycles is rapidly diminishing. The analysts suggest that this is because over $60 billion flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs as well as the fact that institutional demand and global liquidity is now shaping BTC price more than the four-year halving cycle.
In the light of what has been explained above, Bernstein analysts are reliable, as they have a strong track record in traditional finance research, supported by, for example, Rootdata, which reported on December 8, 2025.
Bernstein concluded that the traditional four-year halving cycle has ended, noting that the usual pattern of peaks and corrections tied to halving events is no longer reliable due to growing institutional involvement:
In view of recent market correction, we believe the Bitcoin cycle has broken the 4-year pattern (cycle peaking every 4 years) and is now in an elongated bull-cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling.
Analysts point out that ETF inflows and long-term institutional accumulation are helping absorb supply and reduce volatility.
Moreover, Bernstein’s analysts argue that long-term investors are offsetting retail panic selling, creating a more firm price environment than in the previous cycles.
Among other predictions, e.g. from Don Jr. and Eric Trump, Bernstein therefore raised its forecast for BTC to $150,000 by the end of 2026, with the cycle potentially peaking at $200,000 in 2027. In addition, it is also noted that the firm also maintains a long-term target of $1 million by 2033, assuming continued institutional accumulation and favorable macro conditions:
“Despite a ~30% Bitcoin correction, we have seen less than 5% outflows via ETFs. We are moving our 2026E Bitcoin price target to $150,000, with the cycle potentially peaking in 2027E at $200,000. Our long term 2033E Bitcoin price target remains ~$1,000,000.”
As of press time, BTC is trading at $90,191.63, reflecting a 3.96% increase in the past seven days. See BTC price chart below.
