Jiang Zhuoer, founder of BTC.com, has published an updated historical cycle comparison chart suggesting that Bitcoin’s recent low of $57,800 may represent the major bottom of the current cycle.
Aligning the four historical cycles by their bull market peaks, Zhuoer argues that the duration and magnitude of the decline are not materially different from the previous three cycles. He believes that a large number of market participants have already missed the initial rally, and that a period of sideways consolidation will reignite fear-of-missing-out sentiment, making substantial further declines increasingly unlikely.
Drawing a parallel to the “golden pit” opportunity at the end of 2021, Zhuoer cautions that any forthcoming pullback may only be fleeting. He has reiterated a clear tactical plan for those still on the sidelines: if Bitcoin retreats to the $67,000 to $72,000 range and selling pressure visibly weakens, investors should deploy capital immediately. Failing that, positions should be established at prevailing market prices no later than the end of October, irrespective of the specific price level.
“Missing out on an entire future bull market is way scarier than missing this little uptick right now,” he stated. Zhuoer also reflected on his own recent trading history, acknowledging that his prior bearish stance proved “ridiculously wrong” and explaining that his ability to capture the August rebound stemmed from a disciplined swing-trading framework, automated price alerts, and the liquidity advantages of perpetual contracts rather than from accurate directional forecasting.
He noted that without these structural safeguards, he would likely have remained in cash alongside other cycle theorists who were caught fully in stablecoins.
Zhuoer’s analysis extends beyond Bitcoin to identify Ethereum as the primary engine of the emerging bull market, rather than a secondary beneficiary of Bitcoin’s momentum. He observes that the ETH/BTC ratio has mounted a second wave of appreciation following the initial surge, a pattern he interprets as decisive evidence of ETH’s structural leadership.
The underlying catalyst, he argues, is a fundamental shift in the United States’ posture toward blockchain technology, with the Donald Trump administration’s embrace of on-chain infrastructure poised to drive heavy tokenization of U.S. financial assets—including dollars, equities, and bonds—thereby expanding global financial freedom through smart-contract-based markets.
This macro tailwind, Zhuoer suggests, positions Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin throughout the cycle. While he offered illustrative price targets—suggesting Bitcoin could reach $200,000 with ETH/BTC at 0.1, implying a $20,000 ETH—he characterized these figures as uncalculated examples. Throughout his commentary, Zhuoer emphasized that prediction itself is inherently probabilistic and secondary to rigorous execution and risk management. “Predictions aren’t important,” he noted. “What’s important is execution—if right, hold on; if wrong, stop-loss.”
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