Two days before NFP, the labor market is sending mixed signals. Hereโs what actually matters.ย ๐งฉ
๐ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ณ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด
June JOLTS job openings slipped to about 7.36โ7.4 million, missing forecasts and down from Mayโs revised 7.5 million. Healthcare, leisure and business services all cut back on openings. Employers arenโt panicking, but they are getting choosier.
๐ข ๐ฆ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ ๐ด๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด, ๐ต๐ถ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ป๐ผ๐
July ISM Services PMI rose to 54.1, its 25th straight month of expansion, with business activity and new orders both accelerating nicely. But the Employment sub-index dropped back into contraction at 47.4 from 51.2. Growth without hiring, an odd combo worth watching.
๐ธ ๐ช๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ๐: ๐ฎ ๐๐๐ผ-๐๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐
ADP showed only 44,000 private jobs added in July, the weakest in six months. Pay for people staying put held at 4.4% y/y, but job switchers saw a 7% jump, the biggest gap since last August. Meanwhile ISMโs prices paid gauge jumped to 70.3, so inflation pressure isnโt going away either.ย ๐ฅ
๐ต ๐จ๐ฆ๐, ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐น๐ฑ๐, ๐ด๐ผ๐น๐ฑ: ๐๐๐๐ฐ๐ธ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐
The dollar is holding roughly flat, 10-year yields are hovering near 4.6%, and gold is consolidating around $4,300, caught between softening jobs data pulling it higher and sticky inflation plus an unusually split Fed (three regional presidents actually pushed for a hike in July) cappingย gains.
โก Layer in lingering tariff and Middle East risk premiums still flagged in ISM commentary, and Fridayโs NFP (consensus clustering 80K-120K, unemployment seen near 4.2โ4.3%) could easily be the trigger that decides where USD, gold and yields headย next.
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๐๐ข๐๐ง๐ฆ + ๐๐ฆ๐ : ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฆ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ ๐ง๐ฒ๐น๐น ๐จ๐โฆ was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
