Bitcoin reclaimed the $65,000 threshold on Tuesday, reaching this price level for the first time in more than a week. The move coincided with a broader recovery in US equity markets and reduced geopolitical concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz after statements from President Trump.
In a Truth Social post, President Trump announced that the Strait of Hermuz remains “open and operating” with all water mines either cleared or destroyed. This announcement contributed to the S&P 500’s recovery from 7,696, its lowest reading since early August, boosting confidence across risk-on assets.
Crude oil markets remained stable, with WTI crude declining 1% to trade near $84 per barrel. Meanwhile, yields on 30-year US Treasury bonds surged to 5.34%, marking the highest reading since January 2007.
According to Geoff Yu, an analyst at BNY Mellon, investors are currently “demanding more compensation for inflation risk,” with escalating government debt levels contributing to the upward pressure on yields.
Monday witnessed nearly $300 million in net inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. This represents the most robust single-day performance since May 5, indicating a resurgence of institutional appetite for Bitcoin exposure.
In a recent research report, VanEck analysts—including Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush and Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel—revealed that their proprietary “Bitcoin Capitulation Check” framework shows 8 of 12 indicators currently signaling capitulation conditions.
The research notes that all 12 metrics have touched their capitulation thresholds at various points during the past three months. According to VanEck’s assessment, this pattern indicates Bitcoin is “nearing or currently in an accumulation phase.”
Trading specialist Aksel Kibar highlighted the emergence of a possible inverse head-and-shoulders formation with a neckline around $62,300. His analysis suggests a bullish target of $76,000 if the pattern validates, while identifying $53,000 as a downside objective should the pattern fail.
Market commentator Ted Pillows shared on X that Bitcoin appears “very close to a breakout,” suggesting that a four-hour candlestick close above the $65,000 mark could catalyze a move toward $68,000.
Bitcoin currently trades approximately 48% beneath its all-time high of $126,300, established in October 2025. The 50-month exponential moving average, positioned at $65,827, is currently serving as immediate resistance.
VanEck’s historical analysis indicates that Bitcoin’s three prior bear cycles averaged 12.7 months from peak to trough. The current cycle is approximately 11 months removed from the October peak.
Data shows long-term holders have distributed approximately 356,000 BTC during the past 30 days, reducing their percentage of circulating supply to below 60% for the first time in several months, with 11.84 million BTC currently classified as long-term holdings.
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