Shares of Tesla began Monday’s session at $342.27, marking a 0.3% uptick in morning trading, as SpaceX stock advanced 0.9% to reach $141.29. During the same period, S&P 500 futures registered a 0.2% increase.
Price movements between the two stocks have shown correlation roughly two-thirds of the time throughout recent weeks. Both securities posted gains for two straight weeks heading into Monday’s trading, following synchronized losing periods beforehand.
This increasing correlation stems from a single catalyst: acquisition speculation. Investment professionals are progressively wagering that Elon Musk will unite his dual enterprises, with this anticipation becoming a significant catalyst for Tesla’s share performance.
In July, RBC’s Tom Narayan outlined the strategic rationale. His analysis suggested a Tesla-SpaceX combination would forge an “orbit-to-ground-AI ecosystem” featuring vertical integration, merging Starlink’s network capabilities, Tesla’s autonomous vehicle and robotics divisions, and SpaceX’s space-based computing framework.
Narayan anticipates SpaceX would likely present a premium to Tesla shareholders for deal approval, although specific valuation figures remain unspecified.
Brett Winton, Chief Futurist at ARK Invest, recently indicated a merger announcement could materialize within this calendar year. ARK maintains equity positions in both organizations.
Tesla’s latest quarterly performance delivered contrasting outcomes. The company reported Q2 revenue of $28.24 billion, exceeding the $26.42 billion analyst consensus and representing a 25.5% annual increase.
However, earnings per share registered at $0.33, significantly underperforming the $0.50 consensus projection. Net profit margin stood at 3.67%, while return on equity measured 3.82%.
Current analyst projections point to full-year EPS of $0.88 for Tesla. With shares trading at approximately 317 times earnings, the current valuation provides minimal margin for operational missteps.
During Q2, Zevenbergen Capital decreased its Tesla holdings by 0.6%, divesting 3,072 shares to conclude the quarter holding 534,122 shares valued at approximately $224.7 million. Despite the reduction, Tesla comprises 5.1% of Zevenbergen’s overall portfolio and ranks as its third-largest equity position.
Conversely, Vanguard expanded its Tesla stake by 2.6% in Q4, while Norges Bank established a fresh position worth approximately $17.1 billion. Amundi increased its allocation by 14% during Q1. Combined institutional investors and hedge funds currently control 66.2% of outstanding shares.
Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja divested 2,606 shares on June 8th at $402.20 per share, generating proceeds of roughly $1.05 million. The transaction served to satisfy tax liabilities associated with equity compensation vesting.
Recent analyst price objectives span from $445 to $500 across various updates. JPMorgan reduced its target from $475 to $445 while maintaining a neutral stance on July 23rd, whereas RBC preserved its $500 target alongside an outperform rating. The consensus average price target stands at $401.74, accompanied by an aggregate “Hold” recommendation derived from 21 buy ratings, 19 hold ratings, and 4 sell ratings.
Tesla’s 52-week trading range extends from $297.38 to $498.83, while its 50-day moving average sits at $370.77.
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