Key Takeaways:
That streak just ended — and analysts who track macro-cycle signals are starting to treat the latest price breakdown as more than another routine dip.
Rather than focusing on short-term oscillators or weekly moving averages, analysts are now pointing to a metric that almost never appears in headlines: the two-year simple moving average.
According to market strategist Ali Martinez, Bitcoin has now fallen below this multi-cycle gauge, a threshold that has historically separated bullish expansions from periods of exhaustion. The 730-day line currently sits near $81,250, and BTC’s slide beneath it suggests that buyers are losing command of the larger trend.
Bitcoin $BTC has typically entered bear markets after falling below the 730-day SMA.
That level is now around $81,250. pic.twitter.com/CjCGYPoCwl
— Ali (@ali_charts) November 22, 2025
The last times Bitcoin breached the same line were after cycle highs — not before — meaning the signal traditionally reflects a turning point rather than anticipates one.
Even after losing the long-term benchmark, buyers have not given up. Bitcoin pushed to retake the mid-$80,000 zone, a region that many traders now view as Bitcoin’s first real battlefield in months.
Analyst Ted Pillows warns that the $85,000–$86,000 cluster determines whether the market stabilizes or whether momentum continues to unravel.
If bulls can lift BTC above this resistance band and close convincingly, the chart opens the door to a gradual recovery toward $89,000, $92,000, and $95,000 — all levels that supported the market earlier this year.
If bulls fail their retest, support just above $80,000 becomes the market’s final defense. Losing that threshold clears a fast route into $78,000–$79,000, the next zone of historical demand.
In that scenario, the breach of the two-year SMA would no longer be a warning — it would be confirmation that Bitcoin’s macro trend has flipped from expansion to cooldown.
Bitcoin hasn’t committed to either outcome. The market is holding its breath as price fights in the mid-$80,000 range — with bullish recovery on one side of the door and the first true bear phase of the cycle on the other.
Right now, the only certainty is uncertainty. And the next breakout — up or down — will decide whether this cycle still has fuel left, or whether the cooling phase has already begun.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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