The asset is trading close to $88,000 after briefly touching $80,000, yet expectations for a return above $100,000 before year-end are fading across trading desks.
One point repeatedly raised by institutional traders is that the environment today looks very different from Bitcoin’s summer breakout. Excessive leverage that once magnified rallies has largely been drained from the system. According to Wintermute’s Jasper De Maere, the unwinding of leveraged positions has shifted price behavior toward slower and more stable movements rather than fast vertical climbs.
Spot volume has increased, futures positioning has cooled and funding rates are back to neutral — conditions that De Maere believes support a steady recovery, but not the explosive kind required to clear $100,000 in the coming weeks.
Another factor shaping expectations is year-end positioning. Paul Howard at Wincent notes that institutional desks are entering their annual accounting period, a time when portfolio risk is often reduced rather than expanded. Recent selling from large holders (whales) and liquidations linked to ETF arbitrage strategies have contributed to this more defensive posture.
Howard says this doesn’t reflect a shift in long-term conviction — only in timing. He expects Bitcoin and altcoins to benefit from strong tailwinds over the next 12 months, but does not see sufficient liquidity in the current environment to sustain a breakout above $100,000 this calendar year.
Speculation about a potential 25 bps rate cut in December has helped Bitcoin’s recovery, according to derivatives desks. Lower borrowing costs generally improve appetite for risk assets and reduce pressure on crypto valuations. Still, analysts warn that macro optimism alone is not enough to overcome supply-demand friction and profit-taking pressure near psychological price levels.
Bitcoin is stabilizing after a major correction and conditions have improved compared with last week. Yet most institutional analysts expect the next significant move to develop slowly rather than rapidly. A push through $100,000 remains possible — just not on the 2025 year-end timeline many retail traders were hoping for.
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