Ethereum traded near $1,870 on August 5, next to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement.
Price has moved above the Fibonacci level during individual sessions, but those attempts have not established support above it. A daily close followed by a successful retest would provide stronger evidence that buyers can defend the breakout.
Until then, $1,850 remains the first important support. The level has repeatedly stopped declines during the past two weeks and now forms the lower boundary of the range.
Clearing $1,870 would leave another barrier immediately above. Ethereum’s 100-day simple moving average stood near $1,920, less than 3% above the current price.
A simple moving average tracks the average closing price over a specified period. Traders often use the 100-day SMA to assess whether the intermediate trend is improving or weakening.
A close above the average followed by a successful retest would strengthen Ethereum’s short-term structure and bring the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near $1,990 into focus. That area rejected ETH on July 27 after price approached $1,980.
A recent CryptoQuant analysis showed Binance’s ETH funding rate close to zero.
Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between long and short traders in perpetual futures markets. Positive funding means long positions pay shorts, while negative funding reverses the payment.
A reading near zero shows that neither side is paying a substantial premium to keep positions open. It does not reveal the exact distribution of long and short exposure or whether spot-market buying is supporting the price.
Leverage nevertheless remains elevated. Binance’s ETH Estimated Leverage Ratio stood near 0.65 in the CryptoQuant chart.
The metric compares derivatives open interest with the amount of ETH held in the exchange’s reserves. A higher ratio indicates more futures exposure relative to those reserves, increasing the market’s sensitivity to liquidations when price moves quickly.
The elevated ratio points to greater liquidation risk once ETH moves beyond the current range.
A daily close above $1,920 could pressure short positions and add buying as traders close bearish exposure. That would strengthen the possibility of a move toward resistance near $1,990.
A rejection followed by a loss of $1,850 would instead put leveraged long positions under pressure. The next support would sit near the 50-day SMA at $1,790, followed by the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement around $1,730.
Funding provides no strong directional signal, leaving both sides exposed if the range breaks decisively.
Recent daily candles have narrowed, while trading volume has declined from the levels seen during the June sell-off and the first stage of the rebound.
The daily RSI stood near 52, placing momentum close to the middle of its range rather than showing a strong overbought or oversold condition.
A breakout can still develop on lower volume, but a daily close accompanied by stronger activity would carry more weight than another temporary move above $1,870.
A close above the 100-day SMA followed by a successful retest would bring $1,990 back into focus. A loss of $1,850 would instead expose the 50-day SMA near $1,790 and increase the risk of a deeper pullback toward $1,730.
Until one of those boundaries breaks, ETH remains in consolidation. Funding offers no strong directional bias, but elevated leverage could make the next confirmed move sharper than the recent price action.
The post Ethereum Could Be in for a Sharp Move – Futures Leverage Stays High appeared first on Coindoo.
