Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) rallied over 6% during Tuesday’s trading session, climbing back to approximately $127 after Macquarie advised clients to view the recent decline as an attractive entry point. The stock has experienced downward pressure since its highly anticipated IPO on June 12 and continues trading beneath its $135 offering price.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Macquarie maintained its Outperform rating while establishing a $250 price target — representing roughly double the current trading level. The research team headed by Paul Golding employed a combination of Sum-of-the-Parts and Discounted Cash Flow methodologies, incorporating both traditional launch business fundamentals and developing AI computing revenue streams.
The core thesis: SpaceX has evolved beyond its identity as solely a rocket manufacturer.
Macquarie positions the company as a computational infrastructure provider — one commanding satellite bandwidth capabilities, reusable launch technology, and proprietary chip design alongside data center operations. The firm contends that Starlink’s orbital network and a planned constellation of up to one million satellites operating on virtually continuous solar energy could circumvent the electrical and thermal limitations currently constraining terrestrial data centers.
The artificial intelligence infrastructure narrative has already translated into substantial commercial contracts. Anthropic has committed to securing complete computing capacity at SpaceX’s Colossus 1 installation, securing approximately 300 megawatts of electrical power and over 220,000 Nvidia GPUs. Alphabet has similarly established multi-billion-dollar AI computing partnerships with SpaceX, establishing the company as a large-scale infrastructure provider beyond its traditional launch services.
Macquarie interprets these partnerships as preliminary validation of the business model — and recommends investors to “buy any dip.”
Dissenting voices remain. Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson contended last week that the shares remain overpriced at 92 times trailing revenues, characterizing it as nearly 10 times overvalued relative to a 10x revenue multiple he deems reasonable.
Short sellers seem aligned with the bearish perspective. Short interest has increased to roughly one-third of SpaceX’s publicly available float, and since only a restricted portion of shares are accessible prior to lock-up expiration, the heightened short interest has amplified price swings. Elon Musk responded on Monday, posting on X that entities maintaining substantial short positions in SpaceX over extended periods face a “very low” probability of survival.
The upcoming critical milestone arrives on August 4, when SpaceX will unveil quarterly financial results for the first time as a publicly traded company. This date simultaneously initiates the first wave of a phased IPO lock-up expiration.
After the earnings announcement, insiders gain authorization to divest up to 20% of their qualified locked-up positions — potentially as many as 911.5 million shares. An additional 10% becomes available for sale if the stock maintains trading at least 30% above its IPO price for five of the ten sessions preceding earnings.
SpaceX’s 13th Starship test flight created additional concerns last week after the launch was terminated less than one second before liftoff due to multiple engine ignition malfunctions. Macquarie indicated the short-term setback hasn’t altered the long-term investment rationale.
SPCX presently trades near $127, remaining more than 20% below its initial closing price.
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