NEAR Protocol peaked at approximately $1.48 on April 17. Since then it has declined consistently for two weeks, breaking below the 50MA, 100MA, and 200MA sequentially. Current price is $1.292, 12.7% below the April peak. RSI at 45.59 on the faster signal and 42.28 on the slower is approaching oversold without reaching it. The MA stack is fully bearish: 200MA at $1.359, 100MA at $1.323, 50MA at $1.302, all above current price and all declining.
The on-chain revenue data does not match this picture. According to analyst Michael van de Poppe, NEAR generated 12 million NEAR tokens in protocol revenue in the first four months of 2026, approximately $15.6M. The full year before 2026 produced $10M total. The first four months of 2026 have already surpassed the entire prior year. Van de Poppe projects the full 2026 revenue at $40-60M based on the current run rate, a 400-500% increase over 2025. The price is declining while the revenue is accelerating. At current P/S, one of those two signals is wrong about NEAR’s direction.
Van de Poppe’s valuation argument centers on the price-to-sales ratio. NEAR’s current P/S is 34x. Solana’s is 40x. Ethereum’s is 200x. Web2 companies trade at 15-30x on average. OpenAI and Anthropic are trading at significantly higher multiples with less revenue than NEAR’s projected trajectory.
$NEAR is extremely undervalued.
The entire supply is circulating, and all their mechanics are build in favor of the community actively using the token.
Nobody is interested into AI <> #Crypto protocols.
And that's where the real alpha is.
The current valuation of $NEAR is… pic.twitter.com/gXdEzlVgQw
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 1, 2026
The analytical layer van de Poppe does not develop explicitly is the quality-adjusted comparison. Ethereum at 200x commands that premium because its ecosystem is the deepest, most liquid, and most institutionally embedded in the crypto space. Solana at 40x commands its premium because it has the strongest developer momentum and retail adoption among Layer 1 competitors. NEAR at 34x being cheaper than both does not automatically mean it is undervalued. It could mean the market is accurately pricing the risk that NEAR’s revenue growth does not sustain, or that its ecosystem remains smaller and less liquid than its peers.
The counter is what van de Poppe names directly: AI x Crypto. NEAR is positioning as an AI-compatible blockchain at a moment when AI infrastructure is attracting significant capital. In April’s top-10 gainers, SKY at +549% and EDGE at +96% were both AI and DePIN assets. The market is re-rating AI infrastructure assets. NEAR at 34x P/S with 400% revenue growth and AI positioning is the asset that benefits if that re-rating extends to protocols with genuine revenue rather than just narrative.
Van de Poppe’s projection model is explicit: 2025 $10M, 2026 $50M, 2027 $150M, 2028 $300M, 2029 $450M, 2030 $585M. Each year shows declining percentage growth, 400% in 2026, 200% in 2027, 100% in 2028, which is the standard S-curve pattern for technology adoption. The model reaches $500-600M in annual revenue by 2030, which at the current 34x P/S would imply a market cap of approximately $17-20B, a 10-15x return from the current $1.7B.
The model requires three things to be simultaneously true. First, the 2026 run rate must hold through the remaining eight months, meaning the $15.6M in four months needs to become $40-60M for the full year, which requires the current pace to continue or accelerate. Second, the AI x Crypto narrative must attract sufficient capital to NEAR specifically rather than to competitors. Third, the P/S ratio must not compress. If the market re-rates crypto protocols to lower multiples as they mature, the revenue growth produces less price appreciation than the model implies. None of these conditions is guaranteed. The first four months of 2026 data supports the revenue thesis. The price chart does not support the timing thesis.
The tension in the NEAR data is a timeframe question. The technical picture, price below all three MAs, RSI approaching oversold, two-week downtrend, operates on a days-to-weeks clock. The fundamental thesis, 400% revenue growth, AI protocol re-rating, 10-15x return by 2030, operates on a years clock.
These two clocks do not conflict. A fundamentally undervalued asset can continue declining technically in the short term while its revenue grows. The question is whether the short-term technical deterioration creates an entry point that the fundamental thesis eventually validates, or whether the technical weakness is signaling something the revenue data has not yet shown, a slowdown in adoption, a competitive threat, or a broader market decline that compresses P/S ratios across all crypto assets regardless of revenue performance.
The confirmation signal for the fundamental thesis activating is a monthly close above $1.48, the April peak, with NEAR’s monthly revenue continuing above 3M NEAR tokens. That combination confirms both the price and the revenue are moving in the same direction. The denial signal is a close below $1.15, the April low, with monthly revenue falling below 2M NEAR tokens, indicating the revenue acceleration is stalling at the same time as the price structure deteriorates.
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