SpaceX’s (SPCX) inaugural trading session as a member of the Nasdaq-100 failed to deliver the momentum bulls were anticipating. Shares ended the day at $149.47, representing a 6.8% decline that pushed the stock beneath its $150 opening level from the June 12 initial public offering.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The decline occurred amid broader weakness across technology sectors. The Nasdaq composite index retreated 1.2%, with semiconductor names leading losses.
SpaceX initially priced its public offering at $135 per share. Following a rally that pushed shares above the $200 threshold, the stock has since retreated, with Tuesday’s session marking the lowest closing price since going public.
Market participants had anticipated that index inclusion would generate substantial buying pressure. Index-tracking mutual funds and ETFs managing approximately $800 billion in combined assets were forecast to purchase SPCX shares for portfolio rebalancing. However, much of this anticipated demand may have already been reflected in prices, evidenced by the stock’s nearly 6% gain during the week preceding its index addition.
“Short-term traders and hedge funds were positioning ahead of the Nasdaq inclusion,” explained Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors.
Notwithstanding the selloff, analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive. A flood of coverage initiations arrived Tuesday — exactly 16 trading sessions post-IPO. According to Bloomberg data, analysts are projecting an average price target of $236.45, implying approximately 58% appreciation from SPCX’s closing price.
Among the 17 financial institutions that served as SpaceX IPO underwriters, a minimum of 12 have published their assessments. Every single rating carries a Buy-equivalent recommendation.
The most optimistic forecast originates from Raymond James, which established an $800 price objective. Analyst Brian Gesuale characterized Starship as representing “the defining industrial innovation of our generation.”
Deutsche Bank established a $255 valuation, highlighting reusable rocket technology, the Starlink satellite network, and what analysts described as a “clear advantage” in space-based AI infrastructure deployment.
JPMorgan forecasts 5,000 Starship missions by 2031. RBC projects 2,440 launches by 2030. The substantial divergence between these projections underscores the significant forecast uncertainty.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas estimates SpaceX will require $84 billion in annual capital from 2027 through 2034. Goldman Sachs frames the requirement as $270 billion in debt financing between 2026 and 2030.
The singular skeptical perspective emerged from Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens, who operated independently of IPO underwriting activities. He characterized certain peer valuations as “a bit fantastical.”
Immediately following its public debut, SpaceX executed a $25 billion bond issuance — marking the company’s maiden debt market transaction — primarily intended to refinance existing bank credit facilities.
While the initial offering appeared successful, secondary market performance deteriorated rapidly. Bonds maturing in 2036 saw their spread versus U.S. Treasury securities widen to 1.65 percentage points as of Monday, expanding from the original 1.4 percentage point spread at issuance.
SpaceX maintains investment-grade ratings from major credit agencies and possesses over $100 billion in cash reserves against a $2 trillion market capitalization. Nevertheless, uncertainty persists regarding cash consumption rates and prospective financing requirements.
“Considerable uncertainty remains in the market,” noted Davis Hebert, managing director at CreditSights.
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