Tesla (TSLA) reported worldwide vehicle deliveries of 358,023 units for the first quarter of 2026, coming in below the Street consensus estimate of 372,160. This represents the company’s second consecutive quarter of missing delivery forecasts.
Shares fell 4.6% at Thursday’s market open, marking the largest single-day decline in approximately two months. The stock has lost 15% of its value so far this year and sits 22% below its December peak.
While deliveries showed a 6.3% increase year-over-year from Q1 2025—when manufacturing upgrades and public criticism of CEO Elon Musk impacted production—this quarter represents the company’s lowest delivery performance since the middle of 2022 when those factors are excluded.
The company’s volume models, the Model 3 and Model Y, comprised 341,893 of total deliveries. Higher-end vehicles including the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck contributed 16,130 units. Manufacturing output reached 408,386 vehicles for the period, creating a significant inventory buildup between production and customer deliveries.
The energy storage segment underperformed as well. Tesla installed 8.8 GWh throughout the quarter, declining from 10.4 GWh in the prior-year period and substantially below the consensus forecast of 14.4 GWh. William Blair’s projection had been even higher at 18 GWh.
Truist Securities lowered its TSLA price target to $400 from $438 while maintaining its Hold rating. Analyst William Stein highlighted that both automotive and energy segments underperformed expectations, suggesting investors should concentrate on the company’s Full Self-Driving technology and artificial intelligence initiatives instead of quarterly delivery figures.
Oppenheimer identified a 2% variance from the company-compiled consensus projection. William Blair maintained its Market Perform stance after the energy storage miss.
Wedbush Securities kept its Outperform rating intact along with a $600 price target. The firm emphasized Tesla’s artificial intelligence strategy, autonomous taxi launch plans, and infrastructure investments as justification for continued optimism. According to Wedbush, short-term delivery metrics are less important than these long-term initiatives.
The elimination of the federal EV tax credit in September created an artificial boost to late 2024 sales figures, making year-over-year comparisons more challenging. Additionally, the Trump administration’s decision to reverse emissions regulations and eliminate EV subsidies has encouraged traditional automakers to refocus on internal combustion engine vehicles.
Tesla is winding down production of its Model S and Model X—the company’s longest-running models—while ramping up for mass production of the Cybercab, a fully autonomous two-passenger vehicle lacking traditional controls. Musk has indicated production will commence shortly, though market demand remains unclear.
One bright spot emerged from China, where Tesla’s locally manufactured vehicle sales increased 8.7% year-over-year in March, extending a growth streak to five months. Deliveries of the Model 3 and Model Y from the Shanghai manufacturing facility surged 46.2% compared to February, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association.
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