Bybit & Block Scholes Report: Crypto Reacted to US-Vietnam Trade Deal; BTC Brushed $110k

Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has released its latest crypto derivatives analytics report with Block Scholes, capturing key movements in the crypto markets last week, including the breakout moment on July 2, driven by a tariff truce between the U.S. and Vietnam. 

BTC climbed above the $110,000 threshold while ETH pushed past $2,500, leading to heightened short-term volatility expectations as BTC’s weekly implied volatility briefly surged. The derivatives landscape revealed interesting anomalies, including unexpectedly negative SOL perpetual funding rates despite recent ETF launch approvals and a persistent pattern where ETH options maintained roughly double the implied volatility levels of BTC equivalents throughout both the upward move and any retracements.

Key Insights:

• BTC options volatility dipped to a 2-year low: BTC options markets experienced an unusual quiet period last week, with 7-day implied volatility dropping to just 26% on June 27 – the lowest level since mid-2023 at the $30,000 mark. This breakdown below the typical support levels was quickly reversed by the rally on July 2, which pushed volatility back up to 35% amid broader market optimism following the US-Vietnam trade agreement.
• ETH volatility indicated further upside: ETH significantly outperformed BTC during the July 1-2 period, climbing from $2,400 to over $2,500 before surging another 6% on trade deal news. This price action drove ETH’s 7-day at-the-money implied volatility up by a 10-point daily increase. Throughout this period, ETH options consistently maintained roughly double the implied volatility of comparable BTC.
• ETH options skew shifted bullishly: The volatility term structure for the power duo of ETH and BTC remained relatively balanced through most of the week due to limited price movement. ETH displayed a more dramatic shift than BTC, with 7-day options now pricing in a 1.3% premium for out-of-the-money calls, completely reversing from the previous day’s -1.9% put skew. 

For detailed insights, readers may download the full report. 

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About Bybit

Bybit is the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, serving a global community of over 70 million users. Founded in 2018, Bybit is redefining openness in the decentralized world by creating a simpler, open, and equal ecosystem for everyone. With a strong focus on Web3, Bybit partners strategically with leading blockchain protocols to provide robust infrastructure and drive on-chain innovation. Renowned for its secure custody, diverse marketplaces, intuitive user experience, and advanced blockchain tools, Bybit bridges the gap between TradFi and DeFi, empowering builders, creators, and enthusiasts to unlock the full potential of Web3. Discover the future of decentralized finance at Bybit.com.

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